Bundesliga·Regular Season - 17·
Bundesliga·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
21%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.153.15safe1.03–2.970.30–2.011.33–4.97safer0.78–3.220.07–2.230.85–5.45
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.434.279.70safe3.57–7.292.53–6.026.10–13.31safer3.08–7.782.07–6.485.14–14.26
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction15.9912.0127.99safe12.06–19.918.44–15.5720.51–35.48safer10.97–21.007.48–16.5318.46–37.53
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction10.697.9218.61safe7.75–13.635.24–10.6012.99–24.24safer6.92–14.464.50–11.3411.42–25.80
Blocked shots
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.943.078.01safe3.06–6.821.41–4.724.47–11.54safer2.51–7.370.92–5.213.44–12.58
Corners
72%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.544.1810.71safe4.32–8.752.18–6.186.50–14.93safer3.75–9.331.64–6.715.39–16.03
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction54.8343.48safe48.04–61.6236.69–50.26safer46.37–63.2935.02–51.93
Passes
80%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction493390882safe425–560323–456749–1016safer407–578306–474713–1052
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction69.9667.69safe65.93–73.9963.36–72.01safer64.64–75.2862.05–73.32
Fouls
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2612.4524.70safe9.42–15.099.50–15.3918.92–30.48safer8.66–15.858.75–16.1417.41–31.99
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.453.39safe0.78–3.100.36–2.551.14–5.65safer0.48–3.400.07–2.830.55–6.24
Yellow cards
29%
19%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.792.394.18safe0.75–2.841.26–3.522.00–6.36safer0.48–3.110.97–3.811.45–6.92
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.120.19safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.440.00–0.82
GK saves
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.923.696.61safe1.48–4.352.13–5.253.62–9.60safer1.09–4.741.71–5.672.80–10.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.00 1.03–2.97 0.78–3.22 | 1.15 0.30–2.01 0.07–2.23 | 3.15 1.33–4.97 0.85–5.45 | 57% 21% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.43 3.57–7.29 3.08–7.78 | 4.27 2.53–6.02 2.07–6.48 | 9.70 6.10–13.31 5.14–14.26 | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 15.99 12.06–19.91 10.97–21.00 | 12.01 8.44–15.57 7.48–16.53 | 27.99 20.51–35.48 18.46–37.53 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 10.69 7.75–13.63 6.92–14.46 | 7.92 5.24–10.60 4.50–11.34 | 18.61 12.99–24.24 11.42–25.80 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.94 3.06–6.82 2.51–7.37 | 3.07 1.41–4.72 0.92–5.21 | 8.01 4.47–11.54 3.44–12.58 | 69% 20% |
| Corners | 6.54 4.32–8.75 3.75–9.33 | 4.18 2.18–6.18 1.64–6.71 | 10.71 6.50–14.93 5.39–16.03 | 72% 19% |
| Possession % | 54.83 48.04–61.62 46.37–63.29 | 43.48 36.69–50.26 35.02–51.93 | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 493 425–560 407–578 | 390 323–456 306–474 | 882 749–1016 713–1052 | 80% 19% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.96 65.93–73.99 64.64–75.28 | 67.69 63.36–72.01 62.05–73.32 | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 12.26 9.42–15.09 8.66–15.85 | 12.45 9.50–15.39 8.75–16.14 | 24.70 18.92–30.48 17.41–31.99 | 44% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.78–3.10 0.48–3.40 | 1.45 0.36–2.55 0.07–2.83 | 3.39 1.14–5.65 0.55–6.24 | 49% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.75–2.84 0.48–3.11 | 2.39 1.26–3.52 0.97–3.81 | 4.18 2.00–6.36 1.45–6.92 | 29% 19% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.92 1.48–4.35 1.09–4.74 | 3.69 2.13–5.25 1.71–5.67 | 6.61 3.62–9.60 2.80–10.41 | 31% 15% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.