Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Vasilica Iancu · Portugal
Goals
21%
25%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction0.861.562.42safe0.00–1.830.70–2.420.60–4.24safer0.00–2.090.45–2.660.09–4.75actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
23%
13%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.904.397.29safe1.05–4.762.68–6.093.72–10.85safer0.55–5.262.21–6.562.76–11.82actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
26%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction9.2711.7120.98safe5.57–12.978.33–15.0913.90–28.06safer4.54–14.017.40–16.0211.94–30.02actual9.009.0018.00
Shots in box
23%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction5.587.7413.32safe3.07–8.105.44–10.048.51–18.14safer2.20–8.964.64–10.846.84–19.80actual8.006.0014.00
Blocked shots
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.523.165.67safe0.93–4.101.74–4.572.68–8.67safer0.40–4.641.26–5.061.65–9.69actual1.002.003.00
Corners
28%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.644.828.46safe1.43–5.842.84–6.804.28–12.64safer0.84–6.442.31–7.343.14–13.78actual5.009.0014.00
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction39.8059.89safe33.48–46.1253.57–66.21safer31.89–47.7151.97–67.80actual37.0063.00
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction309511820safe244–375446–576690–950safer226–392429–593655–985actual353596949
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction76.4078.33safe72.18–80.6173.82–82.84safer70.88–81.9172.49–84.17
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6712.6225.29safe9.81–15.539.68–15.5719.49–31.10safer8.93–16.418.76–16.4917.69–32.90actual12.0014.0026.00
Offsides
25%
22%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.973.29safe0.11–2.530.81–3.140.92–5.67safer0.00–2.870.48–3.470.24–6.34actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
43%
18%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.542.424.96safe1.49–3.601.30–3.542.79–7.14safer1.21–3.871.01–3.832.23–7.70actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
49%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.902.465.36safe1.49–4.320.90–4.012.39–8.33safer1.10–4.710.47–4.441.57–9.15actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.86 0.00–1.83 0.00–2.09 | 2.00 | 1.56 0.70–2.42 0.45–2.66 | 1.00 | 2.42 0.60–4.24 0.09–4.75 | 3.00 | 21% 25% 54% |
| Shots on target | 2.90 1.05–4.76 0.55–5.26 | 5.00 | 4.39 2.68–6.09 2.21–6.56 | 4.00 | 7.29 3.72–10.85 2.76–11.82 | 9.00 | 23% 13% 64% |
| Total shots | 9.27 5.57–12.97 4.54–14.01 | 9.00 | 11.71 8.33–15.09 7.40–16.02 | 9.00 | 20.98 13.90–28.06 11.94–30.02 | 18.00 | 26% 66% |
| Shots in box | 5.58 3.07–8.10 2.20–8.96 | 8.00 | 7.74 5.44–10.04 4.64–10.84 | 6.00 | 13.32 8.51–18.14 6.84–19.80 | 14.00 | 23% 67% |
| Blocked shots | 2.52 0.93–4.10 0.40–4.64 | 1.00 | 3.16 1.74–4.57 1.26–5.06 | 2.00 | 5.67 2.68–8.67 1.65–9.69 | 3.00 | 31% 17% 52% |
| Corners | 3.64 1.43–5.84 0.84–6.44 | 5.00 | 4.82 2.84–6.80 2.31–7.34 | 9.00 | 8.46 4.28–12.64 3.14–13.78 | 14.00 | 28% 59% |
| Possession % | 39.80 33.48–46.12 31.89–47.71 | 37.00 | 59.89 53.57–66.21 51.97–67.80 | 63.00 | — | — | 89% |
| Passes | 309 244–375 226–392 | 353 | 511 446–576 429–593 | 596 | 820 690–950 655–985 | 949 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.40 72.18–80.61 70.88–81.91 | — | 78.33 73.82–82.84 72.49–84.17 | — | — | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 12.67 9.81–15.53 8.93–16.41 | 12.00 | 12.62 9.68–15.57 8.76–16.49 | 14.00 | 25.29 19.49–31.10 17.69–32.90 | 26.00 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.32 0.11–2.53 0.00–2.87 | 0.00 | 1.97 0.81–3.14 0.48–3.47 | 1.00 | 3.29 0.92–5.67 0.24–6.34 | 1.00 | 25% 22% 53% |
| Yellow cards | 2.54 1.49–3.60 1.21–3.87 | 2.00 | 2.42 1.30–3.54 1.01–3.83 | 1.00 | 4.96 2.79–7.14 2.23–7.70 | 3.00 | 43% 18% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.49–4.32 1.10–4.71 | 3.00 | 2.46 0.90–4.01 0.47–4.44 | 3.00 | 5.36 2.39–8.33 1.57–9.15 | 6.00 | 49% 17% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.