Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 3·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 3·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo · Portugal
Goals
17%
21%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction0.962.063.01safe0.00–1.921.20–2.921.19–4.84safer0.00–2.180.95–3.160.68–5.34actual0.004.004.00
Shots on target
87%
homeawaytotalprediction2.546.328.86safe0.68–4.404.61–8.035.30–12.43safer0.19–4.904.15–8.504.33–13.39actual1.009.0010.00
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction8.1215.0623.18safe4.42–11.8311.68–18.4416.10–30.27safer3.39–12.8610.75–19.3714.14–32.23actual8.0021.0029.00
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction5.8010.2816.08safe3.28–8.317.98–12.5811.26–20.90safer2.42–9.187.18–13.389.60–22.56actual5.0016.0021.00
Blocked shots
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.853.766.61safe1.27–4.442.34–5.173.61–9.61safer0.74–4.971.86–5.662.59–10.63actual1.003.004.00
Corners
82%
homeawaytotalprediction3.236.539.76safe1.03–5.444.55–8.515.58–13.95safer0.43–6.034.02–9.054.45–15.08actual3.007.0010.00
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction40.0160.24safe33.69–46.3353.93–66.56safer32.10–47.9352.33–68.16actual26.0074.00
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction326497823safe260–391432–562693–953safer243–409415–579658–988actual244702946
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction71.4983.29safe67.27–75.7078.79–87.80safer65.97–77.0177.46–89.13
Fouls
51%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7712.2024.97safe9.91–15.629.26–15.1519.17–30.77safer9.03–16.518.34–16.0617.36–32.57actual17.0010.0027.00
Offsides
15%
17%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.082.483.56safe0.00–2.291.31–3.641.19–5.93safer0.00–2.640.98–3.970.51–6.61actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
49%
18%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.672.214.88safe1.62–3.731.09–3.332.70–7.06safer1.34–4.000.80–3.622.14–7.62actual4.002.006.00
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.120.25safe0.00–0.290.00–0.310.00–0.60safer0.00–0.440.00–0.450.00–0.89actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.102.046.14safe2.69–5.510.49–3.603.17–9.11safer2.30–5.900.06–4.032.35–9.93actual5.001.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.96 0.00–1.92 0.00–2.18 | 0.00 | 2.06 1.20–2.92 0.95–3.16 | 4.00 | 3.01 1.19–4.84 0.68–5.34 | 4.00 | 17% 21% 63% |
| Shots on target | 2.54 0.68–4.40 0.19–4.90 | 1.00 | 6.32 4.61–8.03 4.15–8.50 | 9.00 | 8.86 5.30–12.43 4.33–13.39 | 10.00 | 87% |
| Total shots | 8.12 4.42–11.83 3.39–12.86 | 8.00 | 15.06 11.68–18.44 10.75–19.37 | 21.00 | 23.18 16.10–30.27 14.14–32.23 | 29.00 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 5.80 3.28–8.31 2.42–9.18 | 5.00 | 10.28 7.98–12.58 7.18–13.38 | 16.00 | 16.08 11.26–20.90 9.60–22.56 | 21.00 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 2.85 1.27–4.44 0.74–4.97 | 1.00 | 3.76 2.34–5.17 1.86–5.66 | 3.00 | 6.61 3.61–9.61 2.59–10.63 | 4.00 | 29% 15% 56% |
| Corners | 3.23 1.03–5.44 0.43–6.03 | 3.00 | 6.53 4.55–8.51 4.02–9.05 | 7.00 | 9.76 5.58–13.95 4.45–15.08 | 10.00 | 82% |
| Possession % | 40.01 33.69–46.33 32.10–47.93 | 26.00 | 60.24 53.93–66.56 52.33–68.16 | 74.00 | — | — | 89% |
| Passes | 326 260–391 243–409 | 244 | 497 432–562 415–579 | 702 | 823 693–953 658–988 | 946 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.49 67.27–75.70 65.97–77.01 | — | 83.29 78.79–87.80 77.46–89.13 | — | — | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 12.77 9.91–15.62 9.03–16.51 | 17.00 | 12.20 9.26–15.15 8.34–16.06 | 10.00 | 24.97 19.17–30.77 17.36–32.57 | 27.00 | 51% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.08 0.00–2.29 0.00–2.64 | 0.00 | 2.48 1.31–3.64 0.98–3.97 | 3.00 | 3.56 1.19–5.93 0.51–6.61 | 3.00 | 15% 17% 68% |
| Yellow cards | 2.67 1.62–3.73 1.34–4.00 | 4.00 | 2.21 1.09–3.33 0.80–3.62 | 2.00 | 4.88 2.70–7.06 2.14–7.62 | 6.00 | 49% 18% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.89 | 0.00 | 79% |
| GK saves | 4.10 2.69–5.51 2.30–5.90 | 5.00 | 2.04 0.49–3.60 0.06–4.03 | 1.00 | 6.14 3.17–9.11 2.35–9.93 | 6.00 | 74% 15% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.