Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 6·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Carlos Macedo · Portugal
Goals
27%
25%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.091.542.63safe0.13–2.050.68–2.400.80–4.45safer0.00–2.310.43–2.640.30–4.95actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
31%
13%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.724.618.33safe1.86–5.582.90–6.314.76–11.89safer1.37–6.082.43–6.783.80–12.86actual4.007.0011.00
Total shots
23%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8314.0424.87safe7.13–14.5410.66–17.4117.79–31.95safer6.10–15.579.73–18.3515.83–33.91actual10.0022.0032.00
Shots in box
15%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction5.939.4915.41safe3.41–8.447.18–11.7910.59–20.23safer2.55–9.316.39–12.588.93–21.89actual8.0013.0021.00
Blocked shots
21%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.473.946.41safe0.88–4.052.52–5.353.41–9.40safer0.35–4.592.04–5.842.39–10.42actual2.003.005.00
Corners
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.215.279.49safe2.01–6.423.30–7.255.30–13.67safer1.41–7.012.76–7.794.17–14.80actual4.008.0012.00
Possession %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction48.8551.27safe42.53–55.1644.96–57.59safer40.93–56.7643.36–59.19actual46.0054.00
Passes
40%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction382412794safe317–447347–476664–924safer299–465330–494629–959actual352404756
Pass accuracy %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction77.6680.15safe73.45–81.8875.65–84.66safer72.15–83.1874.32–85.99
Fouls
21%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7515.3927.14safe8.90–14.6112.45–18.3421.34–32.95safer8.01–15.5011.53–19.2519.54–34.75actual14.0011.0025.00
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.493.27safe0.57–2.990.33–2.650.90–5.64safer0.23–3.340.00–2.980.22–6.32actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
39%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.332.424.76safe1.28–3.391.30–3.542.58–6.93safer1.01–3.661.01–3.832.02–7.49actual4.003.007.00
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.100.23safe0.00–0.290.00–0.290.00–0.58safer0.00–0.440.00–0.440.00–0.88actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
51%
17%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.902.315.20safe1.48–4.310.75–3.862.23–8.17safer1.09–4.700.32–4.291.41–8.99actual6.002.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 0.13–2.05 0.00–2.31 | 2.00 | 1.54 0.68–2.40 0.43–2.64 | 1.00 | 2.63 0.80–4.45 0.30–4.95 | 3.00 | 27% 25% 48% |
| Shots on target | 3.72 1.86–5.58 1.37–6.08 | 4.00 | 4.61 2.90–6.31 2.43–6.78 | 7.00 | 8.33 4.76–11.89 3.80–12.86 | 11.00 | 31% 13% 55% |
| Total shots | 10.83 7.13–14.54 6.10–15.57 | 10.00 | 14.04 10.66–17.41 9.73–18.35 | 22.00 | 24.87 17.79–31.95 15.83–33.91 | 32.00 | 23% 71% |
| Shots in box | 5.93 3.41–8.44 2.55–9.31 | 8.00 | 9.49 7.18–11.79 6.39–12.58 | 13.00 | 15.41 10.59–20.23 8.93–21.89 | 21.00 | 15% 78% |
| Blocked shots | 2.47 0.88–4.05 0.35–4.59 | 2.00 | 3.94 2.52–5.35 2.04–5.84 | 3.00 | 6.41 3.41–9.40 2.39–10.42 | 5.00 | 21% 14% 65% |
| Corners | 4.21 2.01–6.42 1.41–7.01 | 4.00 | 5.27 3.30–7.25 2.76–7.79 | 8.00 | 9.49 5.30–13.67 4.17–14.80 | 12.00 | 30% 57% |
| Possession % | 48.85 42.53–55.16 40.93–56.76 | 46.00 | 51.27 44.96–57.59 43.36–59.19 | 54.00 | — | — | 41% 54% |
| Passes | 382 317–447 299–465 | 352 | 412 347–476 330–494 | 404 | 794 664–924 629–959 | 756 | 40% 60% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.66 73.45–81.88 72.15–83.18 | — | 80.15 75.65–84.66 74.32–85.99 | — | — | — | 35% 60% |
| Fouls | 11.75 8.90–14.61 8.01–15.50 | 14.00 | 15.39 12.45–18.34 11.53–19.25 | 11.00 | 27.14 21.34–32.95 19.54–34.75 | 25.00 | 21% 73% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.57–2.99 0.23–3.34 | 3.00 | 1.49 0.33–2.65 0.00–2.98 | 1.00 | 3.27 0.90–5.64 0.22–6.32 | 4.00 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 2.33 1.28–3.39 1.01–3.66 | 4.00 | 2.42 1.30–3.54 1.01–3.83 | 3.00 | 4.76 2.58–6.93 2.02–7.49 | 7.00 | 39% 19% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 1.00 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.88 | 1.00 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.48–4.31 1.09–4.70 | 6.00 | 2.31 0.75–3.86 0.32–4.29 | 2.00 | 5.20 2.23–8.17 1.41–8.99 | 8.00 | 51% 17% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+