Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 23·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
23%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.750.942.69safe0.78–2.720.08–1.790.87–4.51safer0.53–2.970.00–2.020.39–4.99
Shots on target
79%
homeawaytotalprediction5.882.988.86safe4.01–7.741.24–4.725.25–12.46safer3.52–8.230.77–5.194.30–13.42
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction17.759.5527.31safe13.83–21.685.99–13.1219.82–34.79safer12.74–22.775.03–14.0817.77–36.84
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction10.505.5016.00safe7.56–13.442.82–8.1810.37–21.62safer6.73–14.272.08–8.918.81–23.19
Blocked shots
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.942.627.56safe3.06–6.830.97–4.274.03–11.10safer2.52–7.370.47–4.762.99–12.13
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.243.449.68safe4.03–8.451.44–5.445.47–13.90safer3.45–9.030.91–5.984.36–15.00
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.5745.65safe47.78–61.3638.87–52.43safer46.11–63.0337.19–54.11
Passes
68%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction451396847safe384–518329–462713–980safer366–536312–480677–1016
Pass accuracy %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction72.5369.67safe68.50–76.5665.35–74.00safer67.21–77.8564.04–75.30
Fouls
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3312.2826.61safe11.49–17.179.34–15.2320.83–32.39safer10.74–17.928.59–15.9819.33–33.90
Offsides
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.873.42safe0.39–2.710.78–2.961.16–5.67safer0.08–3.010.49–3.250.58–6.26
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.134.19safe1.01–3.111.00–3.262.02–6.37safer0.75–3.380.71–3.551.46–6.93
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.130.24safe0.00–0.270.00–0.320.00–0.59safer0.00–0.420.00–0.450.00–0.87
GK saves
19%
14%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.233.836.06safe0.80–3.672.27–5.393.07–9.06safer0.41–4.061.85–5.812.26–9.87
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.75 0.78–2.72 0.53–2.97 | 0.94 0.08–1.79 0.00–2.02 | 2.69 0.87–4.51 0.39–4.99 | 57% 23% 20% |
| Shots on target | 5.88 4.01–7.74 3.52–8.23 | 2.98 1.24–4.72 0.77–5.19 | 8.86 5.25–12.46 4.30–13.42 | 79% |
| Total shots | 17.75 13.83–21.68 12.74–22.77 | 9.55 5.99–13.12 5.03–14.08 | 27.31 19.82–34.79 17.77–36.84 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 10.50 7.56–13.44 6.73–14.27 | 5.50 2.82–8.18 2.08–8.91 | 16.00 10.37–21.62 8.81–23.19 | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 4.94 3.06–6.83 2.52–7.37 | 2.62 0.97–4.27 0.47–4.76 | 7.56 4.03–11.10 2.99–12.13 | 75% 15% |
| Corners | 6.24 4.03–8.45 3.45–9.03 | 3.44 1.44–5.44 0.91–5.98 | 9.68 5.47–13.90 4.36–15.00 | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 54.57 47.78–61.36 46.11–63.03 | 45.65 38.87–52.43 37.19–54.11 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 451 384–518 366–536 | 396 329–462 312–480 | 847 713–980 677–1016 | 68% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.53 68.50–76.56 67.21–77.85 | 69.67 65.35–74.00 64.04–75.30 | — | 62% 33% |
| Fouls | 14.33 11.49–17.17 10.74–17.92 | 12.28 9.34–15.23 8.59–15.98 | 26.61 20.83–32.39 19.33–33.90 | 62% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.39–2.71 0.08–3.01 | 1.87 0.78–2.96 0.49–3.25 | 3.42 1.16–5.67 0.58–6.26 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 1.01–3.11 0.75–3.38 | 2.13 1.00–3.26 0.71–3.55 | 4.19 2.02–6.37 1.46–6.93 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.23 0.80–3.67 0.41–4.06 | 3.83 2.27–5.39 1.85–5.81 | 6.06 3.07–9.06 2.26–9.87 | 19% 14% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+