Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 6·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Vitor Ferreira · Portugal
Goals
41%
27%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.172.53safe0.40–2.330.31–2.030.71–4.35safer0.14–2.590.06–2.270.20–4.86actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
46%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.113.908.02safe2.26–5.972.19–5.614.45–11.58safer1.76–6.471.72–6.083.48–12.55actual4.005.009.00
Total shots
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1412.2624.40safe8.44–15.858.88–15.6417.32–31.49safer7.41–16.887.95–16.5715.36–33.45actual10.0012.0022.00
Shots in box
43%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction7.607.8315.43safe5.09–10.125.53–10.1310.61–20.25safer4.22–10.984.73–10.928.95–21.91actual5.007.0012.00
Blocked shots
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.053.256.31safe1.47–4.641.84–4.673.31–9.31safer0.94–5.171.35–5.152.29–10.33actual3.003.006.00
Corners
50%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.094.589.67safe2.88–7.292.60–6.565.48–13.85safer2.29–7.892.06–7.104.35–14.98actual5.002.007.00
Possession %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction57.1443.03safe50.82–63.4536.71–49.35safer49.22–65.0535.11–50.95actual64.0036.00
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction477369846safe411–542305–434716–976safer394–560287–451681–1011actual517302819
Pass accuracy %
66%
29%
homeawayprediction82.6278.74safe78.40–86.8374.24–83.25safer77.10–88.1372.91–84.58
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2912.1323.41safe8.43–14.149.18–15.0717.61–29.22safer7.54–15.038.26–15.9915.81–31.02actual14.0012.0026.00
Offsides
41%
24%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.402.97safe0.36–2.770.24–2.560.59–5.34safer0.01–3.120.00–2.900.00–6.02actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.083.89safe0.75–2.860.96–3.201.71–6.06safer0.48–3.130.67–3.491.15–6.63actual3.003.006.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
53%
17%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.882.225.10safe1.47–4.290.66–3.772.13–8.06safer1.08–4.680.23–4.201.31–8.89actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.40–2.33 0.14–2.59 | 1.00 | 1.17 0.31–2.03 0.06–2.27 | 2.00 | 2.53 0.71–4.35 0.20–4.86 | 3.00 | 41% 27% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.11 2.26–5.97 1.76–6.47 | 4.00 | 3.90 2.19–5.61 1.72–6.08 | 5.00 | 8.02 4.45–11.58 3.48–12.55 | 9.00 | 46% 14% 40% |
| Total shots | 12.14 8.44–15.85 7.41–16.88 | 10.00 | 12.26 8.88–15.64 7.95–16.57 | 12.00 | 24.40 17.32–31.49 15.36–33.45 | 22.00 | 45% 47% |
| Shots in box | 7.60 5.09–10.12 4.22–10.98 | 5.00 | 7.83 5.53–10.13 4.73–10.92 | 7.00 | 15.43 10.61–20.25 8.95–21.91 | 12.00 | 43% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.05 1.47–4.64 0.94–5.17 | 3.00 | 3.25 1.84–4.67 1.35–5.15 | 3.00 | 6.31 3.31–9.31 2.29–10.33 | 6.00 | 39% 16% 45% |
| Corners | 5.09 2.88–7.29 2.29–7.89 | 5.00 | 4.58 2.60–6.56 2.06–7.10 | 2.00 | 9.67 5.48–13.85 4.35–14.98 | 7.00 | 50% 37% |
| Possession % | 57.14 50.82–63.45 49.22–65.05 | 64.00 | 43.03 36.71–49.35 35.11–50.95 | 36.00 | — | — | 80% 17% |
| Passes | 477 411–542 394–560 | 517 | 369 305–434 287–451 | 302 | 846 716–976 681–1011 | 819 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.62 78.40–86.83 77.10–88.13 | — | 78.74 74.24–83.25 72.91–84.58 | — | — | — | 66% 29% |
| Fouls | 11.29 8.43–14.14 7.54–15.03 | 14.00 | 12.13 9.18–15.07 8.26–15.99 | 12.00 | 23.41 17.61–29.22 15.81–31.02 | 26.00 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.56 0.36–2.77 0.01–3.12 | 2.00 | 1.40 0.24–2.56 0.00–2.90 | 2.00 | 2.97 0.59–5.34 0.00–6.02 | 4.00 | 41% 24% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.86 0.48–3.13 | 3.00 | 2.08 0.96–3.20 0.67–3.49 | 3.00 | 3.89 1.71–6.06 1.15–6.63 | 6.00 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 1.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 1.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.47–4.29 1.08–4.68 | 3.00 | 2.22 0.66–3.77 0.23–4.20 | 3.00 | 5.10 2.13–8.06 1.31–8.89 | 6.00 | 53% 17% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+