Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 23·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
27%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.272.51safe0.28–2.210.41–2.120.69–4.33safer0.03–2.470.18–2.350.21–4.81
Shots on target
54%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.523.748.27safe2.66–6.382.00–5.494.66–11.87safer2.17–6.871.54–5.953.70–12.83
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6511.9525.61safe9.73–17.588.39–15.5118.12–33.09safer8.64–18.677.43–16.4716.07–35.14
Shots in box
59%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction8.727.2615.98safe5.78–11.664.58–9.9410.35–21.60safer4.95–12.493.84–10.688.79–23.17
Blocked shots
53%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.502.806.30safe1.62–5.391.15–4.452.77–9.84safer1.08–5.930.65–4.941.73–10.87
Corners
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.164.609.75safe2.94–7.372.60–6.605.54–13.97safer2.37–7.952.06–7.134.43–15.07
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction47.5652.32safe40.77–54.3545.53–59.10safer39.10–56.0243.86–60.77
Passes
36%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction408451860safe341–475385–518726–993safer323–494367–535690–1029
Pass accuracy %
30%
65%
homeawayprediction69.1372.72safe65.10–73.1668.39–77.04safer63.81–74.4567.08–78.35
Fouls
38%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6613.7526.42safe9.83–15.5010.81–16.7020.63–32.20safer9.07–16.2610.06–17.4519.13–33.70
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.663.49safe0.67–3.000.56–2.751.24–5.74safer0.37–3.300.27–3.040.65–6.33
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.344.39safe1.01–3.101.21–3.472.21–6.57safer0.74–3.370.92–3.761.66–7.13
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.120.24safe0.00–0.280.00–0.310.00–0.59safer0.00–0.430.00–0.440.00–0.87
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.443.075.51safe1.01–3.881.52–4.632.52–8.51safer0.62–4.271.09–5.051.71–9.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.28–2.21 0.03–2.47 | 1.27 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.35 | 2.51 0.69–4.33 0.21–4.81 | 36% 27% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.52 2.66–6.38 2.17–6.87 | 3.74 2.00–5.49 1.54–5.95 | 8.27 4.66–11.87 3.70–12.83 | 54% 14% 33% |
| Total shots | 13.65 9.73–17.58 8.64–18.67 | 11.95 8.39–15.51 7.43–16.47 | 25.61 18.12–33.09 16.07–35.14 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.72 5.78–11.66 4.95–12.49 | 7.26 4.58–9.94 3.84–10.68 | 15.98 10.35–21.60 8.79–23.17 | 59% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 1.62–5.39 1.08–5.93 | 2.80 1.15–4.45 0.65–4.94 | 6.30 2.77–9.84 1.73–10.87 | 53% 16% 31% |
| Corners | 5.16 2.94–7.37 2.37–7.95 | 4.60 2.60–6.60 2.06–7.13 | 9.75 5.54–13.97 4.43–15.07 | 51% 37% |
| Possession % | 47.56 40.77–54.35 39.10–56.02 | 52.32 45.53–59.10 43.86–60.77 | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 408 341–475 323–494 | 451 385–518 367–535 | 860 726–993 690–1029 | 36% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.13 65.10–73.16 63.81–74.45 | 72.72 68.39–77.04 67.08–78.35 | — | 30% 65% |
| Fouls | 12.66 9.83–15.50 9.07–16.26 | 13.75 10.81–16.70 10.06–17.45 | 26.42 20.63–32.20 19.13–33.70 | 38% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–3.00 0.37–3.30 | 1.66 0.56–2.75 0.27–3.04 | 3.49 1.24–5.74 0.65–6.33 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 1.01–3.10 0.74–3.37 | 2.34 1.21–3.47 0.92–3.76 | 4.39 2.21–6.57 1.66–7.13 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.44 1.01–3.88 0.62–4.27 | 3.07 1.52–4.63 1.09–5.05 | 5.51 2.52–8.51 1.71–9.32 | 31% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.