Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 6·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves · Portugal
Goals
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.440.733.17safe1.48–3.400.00–1.591.34–4.99safer1.22–3.660.00–1.830.84–5.50actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
90%
homeawaytotalprediction6.122.048.16safe4.27–7.980.33–3.744.60–11.72safer3.77–8.480.00–4.213.63–12.69actual5.002.007.00
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction17.545.8723.41safe13.83–21.242.49–9.2516.32–30.49safer12.80–22.271.56–10.1814.36–32.45actual17.004.0021.00
Shots in box
95%
homeawaytotalprediction11.884.9116.79safe9.36–14.402.61–7.2111.97–21.60safer8.50–15.261.81–8.0110.31–23.27actual12.003.0015.00
Blocked shots
73%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.162.136.29safe2.58–5.740.72–3.553.29–9.29safer2.04–6.280.23–4.032.27–10.31actual4.000.004.00
Corners
88%
homeawaytotalprediction6.812.799.60safe4.60–9.010.81–4.775.42–13.78safer4.01–9.610.28–5.314.28–14.92actual14.000.0014.00
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction60.3239.19safe54.00–66.6432.87–45.51safer52.40–68.2331.27–47.11actual64.0036.00
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction520345865safe455–585280–410735–995safer437–603263–427700–1030actual558325883
Pass accuracy %
79%
18%
homeawayprediction86.5179.59safe82.30–90.7375.09–84.10safer81.00–92.0373.76–85.43
Fouls
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1013.1023.20safe7.24–12.9610.16–16.0517.40–29.00safer6.36–13.849.24–16.9715.60–30.81actual11.0018.0029.00
Offsides
45%
27%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.360.992.35safe0.15–2.570.00–2.150.00–4.72safer0.00–2.920.00–2.480.00–5.40actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
20%
19%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.352.453.80safe0.30–2.411.33–3.571.63–5.98safer0.02–2.681.04–3.861.06–6.54actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.030.070.11safe0.00–0.180.00–0.270.00–0.45safer0.00–0.340.00–0.410.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
17%
14%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction1.783.395.16safe0.36–3.191.83–4.942.19–8.13safer0.00–3.581.40–5.371.37–8.95actual1.002.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.44 1.48–3.40 1.22–3.66 | 3.00 | 0.73 0.00–1.59 0.00–1.83 | 1.00 | 3.17 1.34–4.99 0.84–5.50 | 4.00 | 75% 16% |
| Shots on target | 6.12 4.27–7.98 3.77–8.48 | 5.00 | 2.04 0.33–3.74 0.00–4.21 | 2.00 | 8.16 4.60–11.72 3.63–12.69 | 7.00 | 90% |
| Total shots | 17.54 13.83–21.24 12.80–22.27 | 17.00 | 5.87 2.49–9.25 1.56–10.18 | 4.00 | 23.41 16.32–30.49 14.36–32.45 | 21.00 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 11.88 9.36–14.40 8.50–15.26 | 12.00 | 4.91 2.61–7.21 1.81–8.01 | 3.00 | 16.79 11.97–21.60 10.31–23.27 | 15.00 | 95% |
| Blocked shots | 4.16 2.58–5.74 2.04–6.28 | 4.00 | 2.13 0.72–3.55 0.23–4.03 | 0.00 | 6.29 3.29–9.29 2.27–10.31 | 4.00 | 73% 15% |
| Corners | 6.81 4.60–9.01 4.01–9.61 | 14.00 | 2.79 0.81–4.77 0.28–5.31 | 0.00 | 9.60 5.42–13.78 4.28–14.92 | 14.00 | 88% |
| Possession % | 60.32 54.00–66.64 52.40–68.23 | 64.00 | 39.19 32.87–45.51 31.27–47.11 | 36.00 | — | — | 90% |
| Passes | 520 455–585 437–603 | 558 | 345 280–410 263–427 | 325 | 865 735–995 700–1030 | 883 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.51 82.30–90.73 81.00–92.03 | — | 79.59 75.09–84.10 73.76–85.43 | — | — | — | 79% 18% |
| Fouls | 10.10 7.24–12.96 6.36–13.84 | 11.00 | 13.10 10.16–16.05 9.24–16.97 | 18.00 | 23.20 17.40–29.00 15.60–30.81 | 29.00 | 23% 70% |
| Offsides | 1.36 0.15–2.57 0.00–2.92 | 0.00 | 0.99 0.00–2.15 0.00–2.48 | 0.00 | 2.35 0.00–4.72 0.00–5.40 | 0.00 | 45% 27% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.35 0.30–2.41 0.02–2.68 | 2.00 | 2.45 1.33–3.57 1.04–3.86 | 3.00 | 3.80 1.63–5.98 1.06–6.54 | 5.00 | 20% 19% 62% |
| Red cards | 0.03 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 1.78 0.36–3.19 0.00–3.58 | 1.00 | 3.39 1.83–4.94 1.40–5.37 | 2.00 | 5.16 2.19–8.13 1.37–8.95 | 3.00 | 17% 14% 69% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+