Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 23·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
21%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.072.043.12safe0.10–2.041.19–2.901.29–4.94safer0.00–2.290.96–3.130.81–5.42
Shots on target
17%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction3.816.3210.13safe1.95–5.674.58–8.076.53–13.74safer1.46–6.164.12–8.535.57–14.69
Total shots
20%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7315.6427.37safe7.81–15.6612.07–19.2019.88–34.86safer6.72–16.7511.12–20.1617.83–36.91
Shots in box
15%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction6.7210.4617.18safe3.78–9.667.78–13.1411.56–22.80safer2.95–10.497.04–13.889.99–24.37
Blocked shots
26%
13%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.244.497.74safe1.36–5.132.84–6.154.20–11.27safer0.82–5.672.35–6.643.17–12.31
Corners
24%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction4.005.699.68safe1.78–6.213.69–7.695.47–13.90safer1.21–6.783.15–8.224.36–15.00
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction41.1759.63safe34.38–47.9652.85–66.42safer32.71–49.6351.18–68.09
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction393560953safe326–460493–626819–1087safer308–478476–644784–1122
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction69.1082.07safe65.07–73.1377.75–86.40safer63.78–74.4276.44–87.71
Fouls
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1210.8624.98safe11.28–16.967.91–13.8019.20–30.76safer10.53–17.717.17–14.5517.69–32.27
Offsides
37%
25%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.472.89safe0.26–2.580.37–2.560.63–5.14safer0.00–2.880.08–2.850.04–5.73
Yellow cards
51%
20%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.241.673.91safe1.19–3.290.54–2.801.73–6.09safer0.92–3.550.25–3.091.17–6.64
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.862.636.49safe2.42–5.291.07–4.193.49–9.48safer2.03–5.680.65–4.612.68–10.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.07 0.10–2.04 0.00–2.29 | 2.04 1.19–2.90 0.96–3.13 | 3.12 1.29–4.94 0.81–5.42 | 19% 21% 60% |
| Shots on target | 3.81 1.95–5.67 1.46–6.16 | 6.32 4.58–8.07 4.12–8.53 | 10.13 6.53–13.74 5.57–14.69 | 17% 74% |
| Total shots | 11.73 7.81–15.66 6.72–16.75 | 15.64 12.07–19.20 11.12–20.16 | 27.37 19.88–34.86 17.83–36.91 | 20% 74% |
| Shots in box | 6.72 3.78–9.66 2.95–10.49 | 10.46 7.78–13.14 7.04–13.88 | 17.18 11.56–22.80 9.99–24.37 | 15% 78% |
| Blocked shots | 3.24 1.36–5.13 0.82–5.67 | 4.49 2.84–6.15 2.35–6.64 | 7.74 4.20–11.27 3.17–12.31 | 26% 13% 60% |
| Corners | 4.00 1.78–6.21 1.21–6.78 | 5.69 3.69–7.69 3.15–8.22 | 9.68 5.47–13.90 4.36–15.00 | 24% 65% |
| Possession % | 41.17 34.38–47.96 32.71–49.63 | 59.63 52.85–66.42 51.18–68.09 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 393 326–460 308–478 | 560 493–626 476–644 | 953 819–1087 784–1122 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.10 65.07–73.13 63.78–74.42 | 82.07 77.75–86.40 76.44–87.71 | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 14.12 11.28–16.96 10.53–17.71 | 10.86 7.91–13.80 7.17–14.55 | 24.98 19.20–30.76 17.69–32.27 | 71% 23% |
| Offsides | 1.42 0.26–2.58 0.00–2.88 | 1.47 0.37–2.56 0.08–2.85 | 2.89 0.63–5.14 0.04–5.73 | 37% 25% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.24 1.19–3.29 0.92–3.55 | 1.67 0.54–2.80 0.25–3.09 | 3.91 1.73–6.09 1.17–6.64 | 51% 20% 29% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.86 2.42–5.29 2.03–5.68 | 2.63 1.07–4.19 0.65–4.61 | 6.49 3.49–9.48 2.68–10.29 | 61% 14% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+