Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: David Rafael Oliveira da Silva · Portugal
Goals
49%
27%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.420.892.32safe0.46–2.390.03–1.750.49–4.14safer0.20–2.650.00–2.000.00–4.65actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
63%
13%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.383.007.38safe2.52–6.231.29–4.713.81–10.94safer2.02–6.730.82–5.182.85–11.91actual7.001.008.00
Total shots
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction13.039.8522.88safe9.32–16.736.47–13.2315.79–29.96safer8.29–17.765.54–14.1613.83–31.92actual20.0012.0032.00
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction9.004.7913.79safe6.49–11.522.49–7.098.97–18.61safer5.62–12.381.69–7.897.31–20.27actual13.008.0021.00
Blocked shots
58%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.492.475.96safe1.91–5.081.05–3.882.96–8.96safer1.37–5.610.57–4.371.94–9.98actual5.006.0011.00
Corners
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.073.388.46safe2.87–7.281.40–5.364.27–12.64safer2.27–7.880.87–5.903.14–13.77actual4.002.006.00
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction59.8940.88safe53.57–66.2034.56–47.20safer51.97–67.8032.96–48.80actual58.0042.00
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction561389950safe496–626325–454820–1080safer478–644307–472785–1115actual6254601085
Pass accuracy %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction82.6676.34safe78.44–86.8771.83–80.85safer77.14–88.1770.50–82.18
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1011.9924.10safe9.25–14.969.05–14.9418.29–29.90safer8.36–15.858.13–15.8516.49–31.70actual9.0012.0021.00
Offsides
59%
22%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.032.97safe0.73–3.150.00–2.190.60–5.34safer0.39–3.500.00–2.520.00–6.02actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
33%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.354.28safe0.88–2.991.23–3.472.11–6.46safer0.61–3.260.94–3.761.54–7.02actual0.002.002.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
25%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.123.145.26safe0.71–3.541.58–4.692.29–8.23safer0.32–3.931.15–5.121.47–9.05actual1.005.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.46–2.39 0.20–2.65 | 1.00 | 0.89 0.03–1.75 0.00–2.00 | 0.00 | 2.32 0.49–4.14 0.00–4.65 | 1.00 | 49% 27% 24% |
| Shots on target | 4.38 2.52–6.23 2.02–6.73 | 7.00 | 3.00 1.29–4.71 0.82–5.18 | 1.00 | 7.38 3.81–10.94 2.85–11.91 | 8.00 | 63% 13% 24% |
| Total shots | 13.03 9.32–16.73 8.29–17.76 | 20.00 | 9.85 6.47–13.23 5.54–14.16 | 12.00 | 22.88 15.79–29.96 13.83–31.92 | 32.00 | 71% 22% |
| Shots in box | 9.00 6.49–11.52 5.62–12.38 | 13.00 | 4.79 2.49–7.09 1.69–7.89 | 8.00 | 13.79 8.97–18.61 7.31–20.27 | 21.00 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 1.91–5.08 1.37–5.61 | 5.00 | 2.47 1.05–3.88 0.57–4.37 | 6.00 | 5.96 2.96–8.96 1.94–9.98 | 11.00 | 58% 15% 26% |
| Corners | 5.07 2.87–7.28 2.27–7.88 | 4.00 | 3.38 1.40–5.36 0.87–5.90 | 2.00 | 8.46 4.27–12.64 3.14–13.77 | 6.00 | 66% 22% |
| Possession % | 59.89 53.57–66.20 51.97–67.80 | 58.00 | 40.88 34.56–47.20 32.96–48.80 | 42.00 | — | — | 87% |
| Passes | 561 496–626 478–644 | 625 | 389 325–454 307–472 | 460 | 950 820–1080 785–1115 | 1085 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.66 78.44–86.87 77.14–88.17 | — | 76.34 71.83–80.85 70.50–82.18 | — | — | — | 77% 20% |
| Fouls | 12.10 9.25–14.96 8.36–15.85 | 9.00 | 11.99 9.05–14.94 8.13–15.85 | 12.00 | 24.10 18.29–29.90 16.49–31.70 | 21.00 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.73–3.15 0.39–3.50 | 3.00 | 1.03 0.00–2.19 0.00–2.52 | 0.00 | 2.97 0.60–5.34 0.00–6.02 | 3.00 | 59% 22% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.88–2.99 0.61–3.26 | 0.00 | 2.35 1.23–3.47 0.94–3.76 | 2.00 | 4.28 2.11–6.46 1.54–7.02 | 2.00 | 33% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 1.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 1.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.12 0.71–3.54 0.32–3.93 | 1.00 | 3.14 1.58–4.69 1.15–5.12 | 5.00 | 5.26 2.29–8.23 1.47–9.05 | 6.00 | 25% 16% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+