Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Jose Bessa · Portugal
Goals
14%
21%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction0.781.972.75safe0.00–1.741.11–2.830.93–4.57safer0.00–2.000.87–3.080.42–5.08actual1.004.005.00
Shots on target
85%
homeawaytotalprediction2.355.758.11safe0.50–4.214.05–7.464.54–11.67safer0.00–4.713.58–7.933.58–12.64actual5.004.009.00
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction8.7116.6625.37safe5.00–12.4113.28–20.0418.29–32.45safer3.97–13.4412.35–20.9716.33–34.41actual15.0017.0032.00
Shots in box
91%
homeawaytotalprediction5.1611.1016.26safe2.64–7.678.80–13.4011.44–21.07safer1.78–8.548.00–14.209.78–22.74actual6.0012.0018.00
Blocked shots
23%
14%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.694.106.80safe1.11–4.282.69–5.523.80–9.79safer0.58–4.812.20–6.002.78–10.82actual3.007.0010.00
Corners
13%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction3.216.069.27safe1.00–5.414.08–8.045.08–13.45safer0.41–6.013.54–8.583.95–14.58actual5.0010.0015.00
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction37.7562.01safe31.43–44.0755.69–68.33safer29.84–45.6754.10–69.93actual38.0062.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction300513813safe234–365449–578683–943safer217–382431–596648–978actual237411648
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction74.2785.32safe70.06–78.4980.81–89.83safer68.76–79.7979.48–91.16
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9714.2426.21safe9.12–14.8311.30–17.1920.41–32.02safer8.23–15.7210.38–18.1118.61–33.82actual13.0010.0023.00
Offsides
23%
21%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.252.063.31safe0.04–2.460.89–3.220.93–5.68safer0.00–2.800.56–3.550.26–6.35actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
53%
19%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.581.884.47safe1.53–3.640.76–3.002.29–6.64safer1.26–3.910.47–3.291.73–7.21actual4.001.005.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
63%
16%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.201.935.13safe1.78–4.610.38–3.492.16–8.10safer1.39–5.000.00–3.921.34–8.92actual0.004.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.78 0.00–1.74 0.00–2.00 | 1.00 | 1.97 1.11–2.83 0.87–3.08 | 4.00 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.42–5.08 | 5.00 | 14% 21% 65% |
| Shots on target | 2.35 0.50–4.21 0.00–4.71 | 5.00 | 5.75 4.05–7.46 3.58–7.93 | 4.00 | 8.11 4.54–11.67 3.58–12.64 | 9.00 | 85% |
| Total shots | 8.71 5.00–12.41 3.97–13.44 | 15.00 | 16.66 13.28–20.04 12.35–20.97 | 17.00 | 25.37 18.29–32.45 16.33–34.41 | 32.00 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 5.16 2.64–7.67 1.78–8.54 | 6.00 | 11.10 8.80–13.40 8.00–14.20 | 12.00 | 16.26 11.44–21.07 9.78–22.74 | 18.00 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 2.69 1.11–4.28 0.58–4.81 | 3.00 | 4.10 2.69–5.52 2.20–6.00 | 7.00 | 6.80 3.80–9.79 2.78–10.82 | 10.00 | 23% 14% 63% |
| Corners | 3.21 1.00–5.41 0.41–6.01 | 5.00 | 6.06 4.08–8.04 3.54–8.58 | 10.00 | 9.27 5.08–13.45 3.95–14.58 | 15.00 | 13% 78% |
| Possession % | 37.75 31.43–44.07 29.84–45.67 | 38.00 | 62.01 55.69–68.33 54.10–69.93 | 62.00 | — | — | 93% |
| Passes | 300 234–365 217–382 | 237 | 513 449–578 431–596 | 411 | 813 683–943 648–978 | 648 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.27 70.06–78.49 68.76–79.79 | — | 85.32 80.81–89.83 79.48–91.16 | — | — | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 11.97 9.12–14.83 8.23–15.72 | 13.00 | 14.24 11.30–17.19 10.38–18.11 | 10.00 | 26.21 20.41–32.02 18.61–33.82 | 23.00 | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.25 0.04–2.46 0.00–2.80 | 0.00 | 2.06 0.89–3.22 0.56–3.55 | 1.00 | 3.31 0.93–5.68 0.26–6.35 | 1.00 | 23% 21% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 2.58 1.53–3.64 1.26–3.91 | 4.00 | 1.88 0.76–3.00 0.47–3.29 | 1.00 | 4.47 2.29–6.64 1.73–7.21 | 5.00 | 53% 19% 28% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.20 1.78–4.61 1.39–5.00 | 0.00 | 1.93 0.38–3.49 0.00–3.92 | 4.00 | 5.13 2.16–8.10 1.34–8.92 | 4.00 | 63% 16% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.