Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 6·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Luís Godinho · Portugal
Goals
21%
24%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction0.961.692.65safe0.00–1.920.83–2.550.83–4.47safer0.00–2.190.58–2.790.32–4.98actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
24%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.284.778.05safe1.42–5.133.06–6.484.48–11.61safer0.92–5.632.59–6.943.52–12.58actual2.005.007.00
Total shots
22%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6912.7822.47safe5.99–13.399.40–16.1615.39–29.55safer4.96–14.428.47–17.0913.43–31.51actual5.0016.0021.00
Shots in box
20%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction5.628.1913.80safe3.10–8.135.88–10.498.98–18.62safer2.23–9.005.09–11.287.32–20.28actual2.0012.0014.00
Blocked shots
33%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.543.095.62safe0.95–4.121.67–4.502.63–8.62safer0.42–4.661.19–4.991.61–9.64actual0.004.004.00
Corners
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.834.878.71safe1.63–6.042.89–6.854.52–12.89safer1.03–6.632.36–7.393.39–14.02actual4.004.008.00
Possession %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction46.0954.15safe39.77–52.4147.83–60.47safer38.18–54.0046.23–62.06actual32.0068.00
Passes
25%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction405482887safe340–471417–547758–1017safer323–488400–564722–1053actual300633933
Pass accuracy %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction81.5785.32safe77.35–85.7880.81–89.83safer76.05–87.0879.48–91.16
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4613.6428.09safe11.60–17.3210.69–16.5822.29–33.90safer10.72–18.209.77–17.5020.49–35.70actual14.0011.0025.00
Offsides
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.723.24safe0.31–2.730.56–2.880.87–5.61safer0.00–3.080.22–3.210.19–6.29actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
43%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.812.685.49safe1.75–3.861.56–3.803.31–7.66safer1.48–4.141.27–4.092.75–8.22actual2.004.006.00
Red cards
14%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.100.27safe0.02–0.320.00–0.290.00–0.62safer0.00–0.470.00–0.440.00–0.91actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.372.585.95safe1.95–4.781.03–4.132.98–8.92safer1.56–5.170.59–4.572.16–9.74actual4.002.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.96 0.00–1.92 0.00–2.19 | 1.00 | 1.69 0.83–2.55 0.58–2.79 | 1.00 | 2.65 0.83–4.47 0.32–4.98 | 2.00 | 21% 24% 54% |
| Shots on target | 3.28 1.42–5.13 0.92–5.63 | 2.00 | 4.77 3.06–6.48 2.59–6.94 | 5.00 | 8.05 4.48–11.61 3.52–12.58 | 7.00 | 24% 64% |
| Total shots | 9.69 5.99–13.39 4.96–14.42 | 5.00 | 12.78 9.40–16.16 8.47–17.09 | 16.00 | 22.47 15.39–29.55 13.43–31.51 | 21.00 | 22% 71% |
| Shots in box | 5.62 3.10–8.13 2.23–9.00 | 2.00 | 8.19 5.88–10.49 5.09–11.28 | 12.00 | 13.80 8.98–18.62 7.32–20.28 | 14.00 | 20% 71% |
| Blocked shots | 2.54 0.95–4.12 0.42–4.66 | 0.00 | 3.09 1.67–4.50 1.19–4.99 | 4.00 | 5.62 2.63–8.62 1.61–9.64 | 4.00 | 33% 17% 51% |
| Corners | 3.83 1.63–6.04 1.03–6.63 | 4.00 | 4.87 2.89–6.85 2.36–7.39 | 4.00 | 8.71 4.52–12.89 3.39–14.02 | 8.00 | 30% 57% |
| Possession % | 46.09 39.77–52.41 38.18–54.00 | 32.00 | 54.15 47.83–60.47 46.23–62.06 | 68.00 | — | — | 28% 67% |
| Passes | 405 340–471 323–488 | 300 | 482 417–547 400–564 | 633 | 887 758–1017 722–1053 | 933 | 25% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.57 77.35–85.78 76.05–87.08 | — | 85.32 80.81–89.83 79.48–91.16 | — | — | — | 30% 66% |
| Fouls | 14.46 11.60–17.32 10.72–18.20 | 14.00 | 13.64 10.69–16.58 9.77–17.50 | 11.00 | 28.09 22.29–33.90 20.49–35.70 | 25.00 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.31–2.73 0.00–3.08 | 0.00 | 1.72 0.56–2.88 0.22–3.21 | 1.00 | 3.24 0.87–5.61 0.19–6.29 | 1.00 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.81 1.75–3.86 1.48–4.14 | 2.00 | 2.68 1.56–3.80 1.27–4.09 | 4.00 | 5.49 3.31–7.66 2.75–8.22 | 6.00 | 43% 17% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.02–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 1.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.91 | 1.00 | 14% 78% |
| GK saves | 3.37 1.95–4.78 1.56–5.17 | 4.00 | 2.58 1.03–4.13 0.59–4.57 | 2.00 | 5.95 2.98–8.92 2.16–9.74 | 6.00 | 54% 16% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.