Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 23·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
76%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.380.663.04safe1.41–3.350.00–1.511.21–4.86safer1.16–3.600.00–1.740.73–5.34
Shots on target
90%
homeawaytotalprediction6.602.378.97safe4.74–8.460.63–4.115.36–12.57safer4.25–8.950.16–4.584.41–13.53
Total shots
96%
homeawaytotalprediction17.628.1625.78safe13.69–21.544.60–11.7218.29–33.27safer12.60–22.643.64–12.6816.24–35.32
Shots in box
98%
homeawaytotalprediction11.873.8315.71safe8.93–14.821.15–6.5110.08–21.33safer8.10–15.650.41–7.258.52–22.90
Blocked shots
77%
homeawaytotalprediction4.201.856.05safe2.32–6.080.20–3.512.52–9.59safer1.77–6.620.00–4.001.48–10.62
Corners
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.452.809.25safe4.24–8.660.80–4.805.04–13.46safer3.66–9.240.27–5.333.93–14.57
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction60.8838.70safe54.09–67.6731.92–45.49safer52.42–69.3430.25–47.16
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction569365933safe501–636298–431800–1067safer483–654281–449764–1103
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction81.6872.50safe77.65–85.7168.17–76.82safer76.36–87.0166.86–78.13
Fouls
35%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6814.1726.85safe9.84–15.5211.22–17.1121.07–32.63safer9.09–16.2710.48–17.8619.56–34.14
Offsides
47%
25%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.172.77safe0.44–2.760.08–2.260.52–5.03safer0.14–3.070.00–2.550.00–5.62
Yellow cards
31%
18%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.132.684.81safe1.08–3.181.55–3.812.63–6.99safer0.81–3.441.26–4.102.08–7.55
Red cards
79%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.160.25safe0.00–0.250.00–0.340.00–0.60safer0.00–0.400.00–0.480.00–0.88
GK saves
78%
homeawaytotalprediction1.704.055.75safe0.27–3.142.49–5.602.76–8.74safer0.00–3.532.07–6.031.95–9.56
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.38 1.41–3.35 1.16–3.60 | 0.66 0.00–1.51 0.00–1.74 | 3.04 1.21–4.86 0.73–5.34 | 76% 16% |
| Shots on target | 6.60 4.74–8.46 4.25–8.95 | 2.37 0.63–4.11 0.16–4.58 | 8.97 5.36–12.57 4.41–13.53 | 90% |
| Total shots | 17.62 13.69–21.54 12.60–22.64 | 8.16 4.60–11.72 3.64–12.68 | 25.78 18.29–33.27 16.24–35.32 | 96% |
| Shots in box | 11.87 8.93–14.82 8.10–15.65 | 3.83 1.15–6.51 0.41–7.25 | 15.71 10.08–21.33 8.52–22.90 | 98% |
| Blocked shots | 4.20 2.32–6.08 1.77–6.62 | 1.85 0.20–3.51 0.00–4.00 | 6.05 2.52–9.59 1.48–10.62 | 77% |
| Corners | 6.45 4.24–8.66 3.66–9.24 | 2.80 0.80–4.80 0.27–5.33 | 9.25 5.04–13.46 3.93–14.57 | 85% |
| Possession % | 60.88 54.09–67.67 52.42–69.34 | 38.70 31.92–45.49 30.25–47.16 | — | 89% |
| Passes | 569 501–636 483–654 | 365 298–431 281–449 | 933 800–1067 764–1103 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.68 77.65–85.71 76.36–87.01 | 72.50 68.17–76.82 66.86–78.13 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 12.68 9.84–15.52 9.09–16.27 | 14.17 11.22–17.11 10.48–17.86 | 26.85 21.07–32.63 19.56–34.14 | 35% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.14–3.07 | 1.17 0.08–2.26 0.00–2.55 | 2.77 0.52–5.03 0.00–5.62 | 47% 25% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.13 1.08–3.18 0.81–3.44 | 2.68 1.55–3.81 1.26–4.10 | 4.81 2.63–6.99 2.08–7.55 | 31% 18% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% 13% |
| GK saves | 1.70 0.27–3.14 0.00–3.53 | 4.05 2.49–5.60 2.07–6.03 | 5.75 2.76–8.74 1.95–9.56 | 78% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.