Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 6·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Fabio Melo · Portugal
Goals
37%
27%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.192.43safe0.27–2.200.33–2.050.61–4.25safer0.01–2.460.09–2.300.10–4.76actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.504.087.58safe1.64–5.352.37–5.794.02–11.14safer1.14–5.851.90–6.263.05–12.11actual5.002.007.00
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4611.7423.20safe7.76–15.168.36–15.1116.11–30.28safer6.73–16.197.43–16.0514.15–32.24actual11.009.0020.00
Shots in box
50%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction7.196.6713.87safe4.67–9.714.37–8.989.05–18.68safer3.81–10.573.58–9.777.39–20.34actual7.006.0013.00
Blocked shots
52%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.252.595.84safe1.66–4.831.18–4.012.84–8.84safer1.13–5.360.69–4.491.82–9.86actual2.004.006.00
Corners
44%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.474.428.89safe2.26–6.672.44–6.404.71–13.07safer1.67–7.271.91–6.943.57–14.21actual3.005.008.00
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction52.0149.83safe45.69–58.3343.51–56.15safer44.10–59.9241.92–57.75actual38.0062.00
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction409385794safe344–474320–450664–924safer326–492303–467629–959actual335539874
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction76.3474.70safe72.13–80.5670.19–79.21safer70.82–81.8668.86–80.54
Fouls
41%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8513.5726.42safe9.99–15.7110.63–16.5220.62–32.23safer9.11–16.599.71–17.4418.82–34.03actual14.0016.0030.00
Offsides
28%
23%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.793.10safe0.10–2.520.63–2.950.73–5.47safer0.00–2.870.29–3.280.05–6.15actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
39%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.232.304.54safe1.18–3.291.18–3.422.36–6.71safer0.91–3.560.89–3.711.80–7.27actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.452.635.08safe1.03–3.861.08–4.182.11–8.04safer0.64–4.250.64–4.621.29–8.87actual1.001.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.20 0.01–2.46 | 3.00 | 1.19 0.33–2.05 0.09–2.30 | 1.00 | 2.43 0.61–4.25 0.10–4.76 | 4.00 | 37% 27% 35% |
| Shots on target | 3.50 1.64–5.35 1.14–5.85 | 5.00 | 4.08 2.37–5.79 1.90–6.26 | 2.00 | 7.58 4.02–11.14 3.05–12.11 | 7.00 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Total shots | 11.46 7.76–15.16 6.73–16.19 | 11.00 | 11.74 8.36–15.11 7.43–16.05 | 9.00 | 23.20 16.11–30.28 14.15–32.24 | 20.00 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 7.19 4.67–9.71 3.81–10.57 | 7.00 | 6.67 4.37–8.98 3.58–9.77 | 6.00 | 13.87 9.05–18.68 7.39–20.34 | 13.00 | 50% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.25 1.66–4.83 1.13–5.36 | 2.00 | 2.59 1.18–4.01 0.69–4.49 | 4.00 | 5.84 2.84–8.84 1.82–9.86 | 6.00 | 52% 16% 31% |
| Corners | 4.47 2.26–6.67 1.67–7.27 | 3.00 | 4.42 2.44–6.40 1.91–6.94 | 5.00 | 8.89 4.71–13.07 3.57–14.21 | 8.00 | 44% 14% 43% |
| Possession % | 52.01 45.69–58.33 44.10–59.92 | 38.00 | 49.83 43.51–56.15 41.92–57.75 | 62.00 | — | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 409 344–474 326–492 | 335 | 385 320–450 303–467 | 539 | 794 664–924 629–959 | 874 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.34 72.13–80.56 70.82–81.86 | — | 74.70 70.19–79.21 68.86–80.54 | — | — | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 12.85 9.99–15.71 9.11–16.59 | 14.00 | 13.57 10.63–16.52 9.71–17.44 | 16.00 | 26.42 20.62–32.23 18.82–34.03 | 30.00 | 41% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.31 0.10–2.52 0.00–2.87 | 0.00 | 1.79 0.63–2.95 0.29–3.28 | 0.00 | 3.10 0.73–5.47 0.05–6.15 | 0.00 | 28% 23% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 2.23 1.18–3.29 0.91–3.56 | 1.00 | 2.30 1.18–3.42 0.89–3.71 | 3.00 | 4.54 2.36–6.71 1.80–7.27 | 4.00 | 39% 19% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.03–3.86 0.64–4.25 | 1.00 | 2.63 1.08–4.18 0.64–4.62 | 1.00 | 5.08 2.11–8.04 1.29–8.87 | 2.00 | 38% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.