Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 23·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
29%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.132.28safe0.18–2.120.27–1.980.45–4.10safer0.00–2.370.04–2.210.00–4.58
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.113.807.90safe2.24–5.972.06–5.544.30–11.51safer1.75–6.461.59–6.013.34–12.46
Total shots
59%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1111.5324.65safe9.19–17.047.97–15.1017.16–32.14safer8.10–18.137.01–16.0615.11–34.19
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.407.4815.89safe5.46–11.344.80–10.1710.26–21.51safer4.63–12.174.07–10.908.70–23.08
Blocked shots
46%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.262.976.23safe1.38–5.141.32–4.632.70–9.77safer0.83–5.690.83–5.121.66–10.80
Corners
46%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.574.378.94safe2.36–6.782.37–6.374.73–13.15safer1.78–7.361.84–6.903.62–14.26
Possession %
62%
34%
homeawayprediction53.0646.92safe46.27–59.8540.13–53.70safer44.60–61.5238.46–55.37
Passes
69%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction441381822safe374–508314–447688–956safer356–527297–465653–991
Pass accuracy %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction69.3269.18safe65.29–73.3564.86–73.51safer63.99–74.6463.55–74.82
Fouls
56%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7213.4728.19safe11.88–17.5610.53–16.4222.41–33.97safer11.13–18.319.78–17.1720.91–35.48
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.513.35safe0.68–3.000.42–2.611.10–5.60safer0.37–3.300.13–2.890.51–6.19
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.314.41safe1.05–3.141.18–3.442.23–6.58safer0.78–3.410.89–3.731.67–7.14
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.140.25safe0.00–0.260.00–0.330.00–0.59safer0.00–0.410.00–0.460.00–0.88
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.582.995.57safe1.14–4.011.43–4.552.58–8.56safer0.75–4.401.01–4.971.76–9.37
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.18–2.12 0.00–2.37 | 1.13 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 2.28 0.45–4.10 0.00–4.58 | 36% 29% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.11 2.24–5.97 1.75–6.46 | 3.80 2.06–5.54 1.59–6.01 | 7.90 4.30–11.51 3.34–12.46 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 13.11 9.19–17.04 8.10–18.13 | 11.53 7.97–15.10 7.01–16.06 | 24.65 17.16–32.14 15.11–34.19 | 59% 34% |
| Shots in box | 8.40 5.46–11.34 4.63–12.17 | 7.48 4.80–10.17 4.07–10.90 | 15.89 10.26–21.51 8.70–23.08 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.26 1.38–5.14 0.83–5.69 | 2.97 1.32–4.63 0.83–5.12 | 6.23 2.70–9.77 1.66–10.80 | 46% 16% 37% |
| Corners | 4.57 2.36–6.78 1.78–7.36 | 4.37 2.37–6.37 1.84–6.90 | 8.94 4.73–13.15 3.62–14.26 | 46% 14% 41% |
| Possession % | 53.06 46.27–59.85 44.60–61.52 | 46.92 40.13–53.70 38.46–55.37 | — | 62% 34% |
| Passes | 441 374–508 356–527 | 381 314–447 297–465 | 822 688–956 653–991 | 69% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.32 65.29–73.35 63.99–74.64 | 69.18 64.86–73.51 63.55–74.82 | — | 48% 47% |
| Fouls | 14.72 11.88–17.56 11.13–18.31 | 13.47 10.53–16.42 9.78–17.17 | 28.19 22.41–33.97 20.91–35.48 | 56% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.37–3.30 | 1.51 0.42–2.61 0.13–2.89 | 3.35 1.10–5.60 0.51–6.19 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.05–3.14 0.78–3.41 | 2.31 1.18–3.44 0.89–3.73 | 4.41 2.23–6.58 1.67–7.14 | 36% 20% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 2.99 1.43–4.55 1.01–4.97 | 5.57 2.58–8.56 1.76–9.37 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+