Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca · Portugal
Goals
39%
28%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.132.37safe0.28–2.200.27–1.990.54–4.19safer0.02–2.460.02–2.230.04–4.70actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
42%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.713.757.46safe1.85–5.572.05–5.463.90–11.02safer1.35–6.061.58–5.932.93–11.99actual3.007.0010.00
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2012.5624.76safe8.50–15.909.18–15.9317.67–31.84safer7.47–16.938.25–16.8615.71–33.80actual13.0010.0023.00
Shots in box
44%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction6.756.7613.51safe4.23–9.264.46–9.068.69–18.32safer3.37–10.133.66–9.867.03–19.98actual10.005.0015.00
Blocked shots
52%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.392.786.17safe1.81–4.971.36–4.193.17–9.17safer1.27–5.510.88–4.682.15–10.19actual1.000.001.00
Corners
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.464.879.33safe2.25–6.662.90–6.855.15–13.52safer1.66–7.262.36–7.394.02–14.65actual2.000.002.00
Possession %
67%
28%
homeawayprediction53.9245.81safe47.60–60.2439.49–52.13safer46.01–61.8437.89–53.73actual57.0043.00
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction451366817safe386–517301–430687–947safer368–534283–448652–982actual477358835
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction83.0078.11safe78.79–87.2273.60–82.62safer77.48–88.5272.27–83.95
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7313.0325.76safe9.87–15.5910.09–15.9819.96–31.56safer8.99–16.479.17–16.9018.16–33.37actual7.0016.0023.00
Offsides
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.252.84safe0.38–2.800.09–2.420.47–5.22safer0.04–3.150.00–2.750.00–5.89actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.132.164.29safe1.07–3.181.04–3.282.11–6.46safer0.80–3.450.75–3.571.55–7.02actual0.003.003.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.130.19safe0.00–0.210.00–0.320.00–0.53safer0.00–0.370.00–0.460.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
37%
18%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.452.685.13safe1.03–3.861.13–4.242.16–8.10safer0.64–4.250.70–4.671.34–8.92actual4.003.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.28–2.20 0.02–2.46 | 1.00 | 1.13 0.27–1.99 0.02–2.23 | 3.00 | 2.37 0.54–4.19 0.04–4.70 | 4.00 | 39% 28% 33% |
| Shots on target | 3.71 1.85–5.57 1.35–6.06 | 3.00 | 3.75 2.05–5.46 1.58–5.93 | 7.00 | 7.46 3.90–11.02 2.93–11.99 | 10.00 | 42% 15% 43% |
| Total shots | 12.20 8.50–15.90 7.47–16.93 | 13.00 | 12.56 9.18–15.93 8.25–16.86 | 10.00 | 24.76 17.67–31.84 15.71–33.80 | 23.00 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 6.75 4.23–9.26 3.37–10.13 | 10.00 | 6.76 4.46–9.06 3.66–9.86 | 5.00 | 13.51 8.69–18.32 7.03–19.98 | 15.00 | 44% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.39 1.81–4.97 1.27–5.51 | 1.00 | 2.78 1.36–4.19 0.88–4.68 | 0.00 | 6.17 3.17–9.17 2.15–10.19 | 1.00 | 52% 16% 32% |
| Corners | 4.46 2.25–6.66 1.66–7.26 | 2.00 | 4.87 2.90–6.85 2.36–7.39 | 0.00 | 9.33 5.15–13.52 4.02–14.65 | 2.00 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Possession % | 53.92 47.60–60.24 46.01–61.84 | 57.00 | 45.81 39.49–52.13 37.89–53.73 | 43.00 | — | — | 67% 28% |
| Passes | 451 386–517 368–534 | 477 | 366 301–430 283–448 | 358 | 817 687–947 652–982 | 835 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.00 78.79–87.22 77.48–88.52 | — | 78.11 73.60–82.62 72.27–83.95 | — | — | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 12.73 9.87–15.59 8.99–16.47 | 7.00 | 13.03 10.09–15.98 9.17–16.90 | 16.00 | 25.76 19.96–31.56 18.16–33.37 | 23.00 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.38–2.80 0.04–3.15 | 0.00 | 1.25 0.09–2.42 0.00–2.75 | 1.00 | 2.84 0.47–5.22 0.00–5.89 | 1.00 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.13 1.07–3.18 0.80–3.45 | 0.00 | 2.16 1.04–3.28 0.75–3.57 | 3.00 | 4.29 2.11–6.46 1.55–7.02 | 3.00 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.03–3.86 0.64–4.25 | 4.00 | 2.68 1.13–4.24 0.70–4.67 | 3.00 | 5.13 2.16–8.10 1.34–8.92 | 7.00 | 37% 18% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.