Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Gustavo Correia · Portugal
Goals
42%
27%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.142.53safe0.42–2.350.28–2.000.71–4.35safer0.16–2.610.04–2.250.20–4.86actual3.003.006.00
Shots on target
41%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.833.977.80safe1.98–5.692.26–5.684.24–11.37safer1.48–6.191.79–6.153.27–12.33actual6.006.0012.00
Total shots
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6212.2522.87safe6.91–14.328.87–15.6315.79–29.95safer5.88–15.357.94–16.5613.83–31.91actual11.0020.0031.00
Shots in box
46%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction7.557.4214.97safe5.03–10.075.12–9.7210.15–19.79safer4.17–10.934.32–10.528.49–21.45actual4.0014.0018.00
Blocked shots
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.713.125.82safe1.12–4.291.70–4.532.82–8.82safer0.59–4.821.22–5.021.80–9.84actual2.007.009.00
Corners
35%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.525.179.70safe2.32–6.733.19–7.155.51–13.88safer1.72–7.322.66–7.694.38–15.01actual4.005.009.00
Possession %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction53.9846.89safe47.66–60.2940.57–53.20safer46.06–61.8938.97–54.80actual38.0062.00
Passes
63%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction410371781safe345–475306–436651–911safer327–493289–453616–946actual302479781
Pass accuracy %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction79.4474.10safe75.22–83.6569.60–78.61safer73.92–84.9668.27–79.94
Fouls
22%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0314.3325.36safe8.18–13.8911.39–17.2819.56–31.17safer7.29–14.7810.47–18.1917.76–32.97actual16.0012.0028.00
Offsides
41%
24%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.412.97safe0.35–2.770.24–2.570.59–5.34safer0.01–3.110.00–2.900.00–6.02actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
38%
19%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.444.75safe1.25–3.361.32–3.562.57–6.92safer0.97–3.631.03–3.852.01–7.48actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
15%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.180.100.28safe0.03–0.330.00–0.290.00–0.63safer0.00–0.480.00–0.440.00–0.92actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
44%
18%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.662.495.15safe1.24–4.070.94–4.042.18–8.12safer0.86–4.460.50–4.481.36–8.94actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.42–2.35 0.16–2.61 | 3.00 | 1.14 0.28–2.00 0.04–2.25 | 3.00 | 2.53 0.71–4.35 0.20–4.86 | 6.00 | 42% 27% 31% |
| Shots on target | 3.83 1.98–5.69 1.48–6.19 | 6.00 | 3.97 2.26–5.68 1.79–6.15 | 6.00 | 7.80 4.24–11.37 3.27–12.33 | 12.00 | 41% 15% 45% |
| Total shots | 10.62 6.91–14.32 5.88–15.35 | 11.00 | 12.25 8.87–15.63 7.94–16.56 | 20.00 | 22.87 15.79–29.95 13.83–31.91 | 31.00 | 33% 59% |
| Shots in box | 7.55 5.03–10.07 4.17–10.93 | 4.00 | 7.42 5.12–9.72 4.32–10.52 | 14.00 | 14.97 10.15–19.79 8.49–21.45 | 18.00 | 46% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 2.71 1.12–4.29 0.59–4.82 | 2.00 | 3.12 1.70–4.53 1.22–5.02 | 7.00 | 5.82 2.82–8.82 1.80–9.84 | 9.00 | 35% 17% 48% |
| Corners | 4.52 2.32–6.73 1.72–7.32 | 4.00 | 5.17 3.19–7.15 2.66–7.69 | 5.00 | 9.70 5.51–13.88 4.38–15.01 | 9.00 | 35% 52% |
| Possession % | 53.98 47.66–60.29 46.06–61.89 | 38.00 | 46.89 40.57–53.20 38.97–54.80 | 62.00 | — | — | 65% 30% |
| Passes | 410 345–475 327–493 | 302 | 371 306–436 289–453 | 479 | 781 651–911 616–946 | 781 | 63% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.44 75.22–83.65 73.92–84.96 | — | 74.10 69.60–78.61 68.27–79.94 | — | — | — | 73% 23% |
| Fouls | 11.03 8.18–13.89 7.29–14.78 | 16.00 | 14.33 11.39–17.28 10.47–18.19 | 12.00 | 25.36 19.56–31.17 17.76–32.97 | 28.00 | 22% 71% |
| Offsides | 1.56 0.35–2.77 0.01–3.11 | 0.00 | 1.41 0.24–2.57 0.00–2.90 | 2.00 | 2.97 0.59–5.34 0.00–6.02 | 2.00 | 41% 24% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.25–3.36 0.97–3.63 | 2.00 | 2.44 1.32–3.56 1.03–3.85 | 3.00 | 4.75 2.57–6.92 2.01–7.48 | 5.00 | 38% 19% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.18 0.03–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.92 | 0.00 | 15% 77% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.24–4.07 0.86–4.46 | 2.00 | 2.49 0.94–4.04 0.50–4.48 | 3.00 | 5.15 2.18–8.12 1.36–8.94 | 5.00 | 44% 18% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.