Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe · Portugal
Goals
53%
26%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.520.862.38safe0.56–2.480.00–1.720.56–4.20safer0.30–2.740.00–1.970.05–4.71actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
57%
14%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.233.277.49safe2.37–6.081.56–4.973.93–11.06safer1.87–6.581.09–5.442.96–12.02actual6.003.009.00
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6710.0623.73safe9.97–17.376.68–13.4416.64–30.81safer8.93–18.405.75–14.3714.68–32.77actual23.006.0029.00
Shots in box
69%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction8.305.9514.24safe5.78–10.813.65–8.259.43–19.06safer4.92–11.682.85–9.047.76–20.72actual16.001.0017.00
Blocked shots
52%
16%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.412.776.18safe1.83–5.001.35–4.183.18–9.18safer1.29–5.530.87–4.672.16–10.20actual6.001.007.00
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.424.129.54safe3.22–7.632.14–6.105.36–13.73safer2.62–8.221.61–6.644.23–14.86actual8.003.0011.00
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction48.7649.96safe42.44–55.0843.65–56.28safer40.85–56.6742.05–57.88actual48.0052.00
Passes
42%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction402425826safe337–467360–489697–956safer319–485342–507661–992actual352400752
Pass accuracy %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction72.3771.54safe68.15–76.5867.03–76.04safer66.85–77.8865.70–77.37
Fouls
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6312.6027.23safe11.78–17.499.66–15.5521.43–33.04safer10.89–18.378.74–16.4719.63–34.84actual12.008.0020.00
Offsides
48%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.262.98safe0.51–2.930.10–2.420.61–5.35safer0.17–3.280.00–2.760.00–6.03actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
37%
19%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.202.374.57safe1.15–3.261.25–3.492.39–6.74safer0.87–3.530.96–3.781.83–7.31actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.110.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.86actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
32%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.392.945.32safe0.97–3.801.38–4.492.36–8.29safer0.58–4.190.95–4.921.53–9.11actual3.005.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.56–2.48 0.30–2.74 | 1.00 | 0.86 0.00–1.72 0.00–1.97 | 0.00 | 2.38 0.56–4.20 0.05–4.71 | 1.00 | 53% 26% 21% |
| Shots on target | 4.23 2.37–6.08 1.87–6.58 | 6.00 | 3.27 1.56–4.97 1.09–5.44 | 3.00 | 7.49 3.93–11.06 2.96–12.02 | 9.00 | 57% 14% 29% |
| Total shots | 13.67 9.97–17.37 8.93–18.40 | 23.00 | 10.06 6.68–13.44 5.75–14.37 | 6.00 | 23.73 16.64–30.81 14.68–32.77 | 29.00 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 8.30 5.78–10.81 4.92–11.68 | 16.00 | 5.95 3.65–8.25 2.85–9.04 | 1.00 | 14.24 9.43–19.06 7.76–20.72 | 17.00 | 69% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 3.41 1.83–5.00 1.29–5.53 | 6.00 | 2.77 1.35–4.18 0.87–4.67 | 1.00 | 6.18 3.18–9.18 2.16–10.20 | 7.00 | 52% 16% 32% |
| Corners | 5.42 3.22–7.63 2.62–8.22 | 8.00 | 4.12 2.14–6.10 1.61–6.64 | 3.00 | 9.54 5.36–13.73 4.23–14.86 | 11.00 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 48.76 42.44–55.08 40.85–56.67 | 48.00 | 49.96 43.65–56.28 42.05–57.88 | 52.00 | — | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 402 337–467 319–485 | 352 | 425 360–489 342–507 | 400 | 826 697–956 661–992 | 752 | 42% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.37 68.15–76.58 66.85–77.88 | — | 71.54 67.03–76.04 65.70–77.37 | — | — | — | 52% 43% |
| Fouls | 14.63 11.78–17.49 10.89–18.37 | 12.00 | 12.60 9.66–15.55 8.74–16.47 | 8.00 | 27.23 21.43–33.04 19.63–34.84 | 20.00 | 62% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.51–2.93 0.17–3.28 | 2.00 | 1.26 0.10–2.42 0.00–2.76 | 1.00 | 2.98 0.61–5.35 0.00–6.03 | 3.00 | 48% 24% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.20 1.15–3.26 0.87–3.53 | 2.00 | 2.37 1.25–3.49 0.96–3.78 | 2.00 | 4.57 2.39–6.74 1.83–7.31 | 4.00 | 37% 19% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 0.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.39 0.97–3.80 0.58–4.19 | 3.00 | 2.94 1.38–4.49 0.95–4.92 | 5.00 | 5.32 2.36–8.29 1.53–9.11 | 8.00 | 32% 17% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.