Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Pedro Ramalho · Portugal
Goals
49%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.062.61safe0.59–2.510.20–1.920.79–4.43safer0.33–2.770.00–2.170.28–4.94actual1.002.003.00
Shots on target
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.223.398.61safe3.36–7.081.69–5.105.05–12.18safer2.86–7.571.22–5.574.08–13.15actual6.003.009.00
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction16.3111.6027.91safe12.60–20.018.22–14.9820.83–34.99safer11.57–21.047.29–15.9118.87–36.95actual14.0011.0025.00
Shots in box
69%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction9.346.8216.17safe6.83–11.864.52–9.1211.35–20.98safer5.96–12.733.72–9.929.69–22.64actual7.007.0014.00
Blocked shots
63%
13%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.342.947.28safe2.75–5.921.53–4.364.28–10.28safer2.22–6.451.04–4.853.26–11.30actual2.001.003.00
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.574.3110.88safe4.36–8.772.33–6.296.70–15.06safer3.77–9.371.80–6.835.57–16.20actual7.004.0011.00
Possession %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction55.7743.27safe49.45–62.0936.95–49.59safer47.86–63.6835.36–51.19actual53.0047.00
Passes
84%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction470352822safe405–536287–416692–952safer387–553269–434657–987actual394346740
Pass accuracy %
75%
22%
homeawayprediction71.8366.02safe67.61–76.0561.52–70.53safer66.31–77.3560.19–71.86
Fouls
47%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8612.8025.67safe10.01–15.729.86–15.7519.86–31.47safer9.12–16.608.94–16.6718.06–33.27actual7.0011.0018.00
Offsides
47%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.222.85safe0.43–2.850.06–2.380.48–5.23safer0.08–3.190.00–2.710.00–5.90actual0.003.003.00
Yellow cards
41%
19%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.402.364.76safe1.35–3.461.24–3.482.58–6.93safer1.07–3.730.95–3.772.02–7.50actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.070.20safe0.00–0.280.00–0.270.00–0.55safer0.00–0.430.00–0.410.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
24%
16%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.123.245.36safe0.71–3.531.69–4.792.39–8.33safer0.32–3.921.25–5.231.57–9.15actual0.005.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.59–2.51 0.33–2.77 | 1.00 | 1.06 0.20–1.92 0.00–2.17 | 2.00 | 2.61 0.79–4.43 0.28–4.94 | 3.00 | 49% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.22 3.36–7.08 2.86–7.57 | 6.00 | 3.39 1.69–5.10 1.22–5.57 | 3.00 | 8.61 5.05–12.18 4.08–13.15 | 9.00 | 67% 21% |
| Total shots | 16.31 12.60–20.01 11.57–21.04 | 14.00 | 11.60 8.22–14.98 7.29–15.91 | 11.00 | 27.91 20.83–34.99 18.87–36.95 | 25.00 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 9.34 6.83–11.86 5.96–12.73 | 7.00 | 6.82 4.52–9.12 3.72–9.92 | 7.00 | 16.17 11.35–20.98 9.69–22.64 | 14.00 | 69% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.34 2.75–5.92 2.22–6.45 | 2.00 | 2.94 1.53–4.36 1.04–4.85 | 1.00 | 7.28 4.28–10.28 3.26–11.30 | 3.00 | 63% 13% 24% |
| Corners | 6.57 4.36–8.77 3.77–9.37 | 7.00 | 4.31 2.33–6.29 1.80–6.83 | 4.00 | 10.88 6.70–15.06 5.57–16.20 | 11.00 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 55.77 49.45–62.09 47.86–63.68 | 53.00 | 43.27 36.95–49.59 35.36–51.19 | 47.00 | — | — | 77% 20% |
| Passes | 470 405–536 387–553 | 394 | 352 287–416 269–434 | 346 | 822 692–952 657–987 | 740 | 84% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.83 67.61–76.05 66.31–77.35 | — | 66.02 61.52–70.53 60.19–71.86 | — | — | — | 75% 22% |
| Fouls | 12.86 10.01–15.72 9.12–16.60 | 7.00 | 12.80 9.86–15.75 8.94–16.67 | 11.00 | 25.67 19.86–31.47 18.06–33.27 | 18.00 | 47% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.43–2.85 0.08–3.19 | 0.00 | 1.22 0.06–2.38 0.00–2.71 | 3.00 | 2.85 0.48–5.23 0.00–5.90 | 3.00 | 47% 24% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.40 1.35–3.46 1.07–3.73 | 3.00 | 2.36 1.24–3.48 0.95–3.77 | 2.00 | 4.76 2.58–6.93 2.02–7.50 | 5.00 | 41% 19% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.12 0.71–3.53 0.32–3.92 | 0.00 | 3.24 1.69–4.79 1.25–5.23 | 5.00 | 5.36 2.39–8.33 1.57–9.15 | 5.00 | 24% 16% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+