Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 7·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso · Portugal
Goals
52%
26%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.510.872.37safe0.54–2.470.01–1.730.55–4.20safer0.28–2.730.00–1.970.04–4.70actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.643.197.82safe2.78–6.491.48–4.894.26–11.39safer2.28–6.991.01–5.363.29–12.35actual2.004.006.00
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction13.889.7423.62safe10.17–17.586.36–13.1216.54–30.70safer9.14–18.615.43–14.0514.58–32.66actual16.008.0024.00
Shots in box
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction9.696.0515.74safe7.18–12.213.75–8.3510.92–20.56safer6.31–13.072.95–9.159.26–22.22actual10.006.0016.00
Blocked shots
59%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.572.516.08safe1.98–5.151.10–3.933.08–9.08safer1.45–5.680.61–4.422.06–10.10actual5.002.007.00
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.384.019.39safe3.18–7.592.04–5.995.21–13.58safer2.58–8.181.50–6.534.08–14.71actual5.002.007.00
Possession %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction50.7449.82safe44.42–57.0643.50–56.14safer42.82–58.6541.91–57.74actual59.0041.00
Passes
53%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction411402813safe346–476338–467683–943safer328–494320–484648–978actual453324777
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction68.6472.59safe64.43–72.8668.08–77.10safer63.13–74.1666.75–78.43
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6012.9626.56safe10.74–16.4610.02–15.9120.76–32.36safer9.86–17.349.10–16.8218.96–34.17actual10.0011.0021.00
Offsides
33%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.783.27safe0.29–2.700.61–2.940.90–5.64safer0.00–3.050.28–3.270.22–6.32actual0.000.000.00
Yellow cards
35%
18%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.282.594.87safe1.23–3.341.47–3.712.70–7.05safer0.96–3.611.18–4.002.14–7.61actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.140.28safe0.00–0.290.00–0.330.00–0.62safer0.00–0.450.00–0.470.00–0.92actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
21%
16%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.883.155.02safe0.46–3.291.59–4.702.05–7.99safer0.07–3.681.16–5.131.23–8.81actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.51 0.54–2.47 0.28–2.73 | 0.00 | 0.87 0.01–1.73 0.00–1.97 | 2.00 | 2.37 0.55–4.20 0.04–4.70 | 2.00 | 52% 26% 22% |
| Shots on target | 4.64 2.78–6.49 2.28–6.99 | 2.00 | 3.19 1.48–4.89 1.01–5.36 | 4.00 | 7.82 4.26–11.39 3.29–12.35 | 6.00 | 63% 24% |
| Total shots | 13.88 10.17–17.58 9.14–18.61 | 16.00 | 9.74 6.36–13.12 5.43–14.05 | 8.00 | 23.62 16.54–30.70 14.58–32.66 | 24.00 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 9.69 7.18–12.21 6.31–13.07 | 10.00 | 6.05 3.75–8.35 2.95–9.15 | 6.00 | 15.74 10.92–20.56 9.26–22.22 | 16.00 | 79% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 1.98–5.15 1.45–5.68 | 5.00 | 2.51 1.10–3.93 0.61–4.42 | 2.00 | 6.08 3.08–9.08 2.06–10.10 | 7.00 | 59% 15% 26% |
| Corners | 5.38 3.18–7.59 2.58–8.18 | 5.00 | 4.01 2.04–5.99 1.50–6.53 | 2.00 | 9.39 5.21–13.58 4.08–14.71 | 7.00 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 50.74 44.42–57.06 42.82–58.65 | 59.00 | 49.82 43.50–56.14 41.91–57.74 | 41.00 | — | — | 50% 45% |
| Passes | 411 346–476 328–494 | 453 | 402 338–467 320–484 | 324 | 813 683–943 648–978 | 777 | 53% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.64 64.43–72.86 63.13–74.16 | — | 72.59 68.08–77.10 66.75–78.43 | — | — | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 13.60 10.74–16.46 9.86–17.34 | 10.00 | 12.96 10.02–15.91 9.10–16.82 | 11.00 | 26.56 20.76–32.36 18.96–34.17 | 21.00 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.29–2.70 0.00–3.05 | 0.00 | 1.78 0.61–2.94 0.28–3.27 | 0.00 | 3.27 0.90–5.64 0.22–6.32 | 0.00 | 33% 23% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 2.28 1.23–3.34 0.96–3.61 | 2.00 | 2.59 1.47–3.71 1.18–4.00 | 3.00 | 4.87 2.70–7.05 2.14–7.61 | 5.00 | 35% 18% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.00 | 0.28 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.92 | 0.00 | 77% |
| GK saves | 1.88 0.46–3.29 0.07–3.68 | 2.00 | 3.15 1.59–4.70 1.16–5.13 | 2.00 | 5.02 2.05–7.99 1.23–8.81 | 4.00 | 21% 16% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.