Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 24·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
27%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.322.48safe0.19–2.130.46–2.170.66–4.30safer0.00–2.380.24–2.400.18–4.78
Shots on target
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.914.388.29safe2.05–5.782.64–6.124.69–11.90safer1.56–6.272.17–6.593.73–12.85
Total shots
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9113.7525.65safe7.98–15.8310.18–17.3118.17–33.14safer6.89–16.929.22–18.2716.12–35.19
Shots in box
27%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction6.908.7615.66safe3.96–9.846.08–11.4410.04–21.29safer3.13–10.675.34–12.188.47–22.85
Blocked shots
32%
15%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.943.616.55safe1.06–4.821.96–5.263.01–10.08safer0.51–5.361.47–5.761.98–11.12
Corners
38%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.574.989.55safe2.36–6.782.98–6.985.33–13.76safer1.78–7.362.44–7.514.23–14.87
Possession %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction53.9746.48safe47.18–60.7739.70–53.27safer45.51–62.4338.03–54.94
Passes
80%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction472369841safe405–539303–436708–975safer387–557285–453672–1011
Pass accuracy %
50%
44%
homeawayprediction70.4269.84safe66.39–74.4565.51–74.16safer65.09–75.7464.21–75.47
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4914.3127.79safe10.65–16.3211.36–17.2522.01–33.57safer9.89–17.0810.61–18.0020.51–35.08
Offsides
41%
26%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.282.71safe0.28–2.600.18–2.370.46–4.97safer0.00–2.900.00–2.660.00–5.56
Yellow cards
39%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.352.444.79safe1.30–3.401.31–3.572.61–6.97safer1.03–3.661.02–3.862.05–7.52
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.140.25safe0.00–0.270.00–0.330.00–0.59safer0.00–0.420.00–0.460.00–0.88
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.012.635.64safe1.57–4.441.08–4.192.65–8.63safer1.18–4.830.65–4.611.83–9.44
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.19–2.13 0.00–2.38 | 1.32 0.46–2.17 0.24–2.40 | 2.48 0.66–4.30 0.18–4.78 | 33% 27% 40% |
| Shots on target | 3.91 2.05–5.78 1.56–6.27 | 4.38 2.64–6.12 2.17–6.59 | 8.29 4.69–11.90 3.73–12.85 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Total shots | 11.91 7.98–15.83 6.89–16.92 | 13.75 10.18–17.31 9.22–18.27 | 25.65 18.17–33.14 16.12–35.19 | 32% 60% |
| Shots in box | 6.90 3.96–9.84 3.13–10.67 | 8.76 6.08–11.44 5.34–12.18 | 15.66 10.04–21.29 8.47–22.85 | 27% 63% |
| Blocked shots | 2.94 1.06–4.82 0.51–5.36 | 3.61 1.96–5.26 1.47–5.76 | 6.55 3.01–10.08 1.98–11.12 | 32% 15% 52% |
| Corners | 4.57 2.36–6.78 1.78–7.36 | 4.98 2.98–6.98 2.44–7.51 | 9.55 5.33–13.76 4.23–14.87 | 38% 49% |
| Possession % | 53.97 47.18–60.77 45.51–62.43 | 46.48 39.70–53.27 38.03–54.94 | — | 65% 31% |
| Passes | 472 405–539 387–557 | 369 303–436 285–453 | 841 708–975 672–1011 | 80% 19% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.42 66.39–74.45 65.09–75.74 | 69.84 65.51–74.16 64.21–75.47 | — | 50% 44% |
| Fouls | 13.49 10.65–16.32 9.89–17.08 | 14.31 11.36–17.25 10.61–18.00 | 27.79 22.01–33.57 20.51–35.08 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.28–2.60 0.00–2.90 | 1.28 0.18–2.37 0.00–2.66 | 2.71 0.46–4.97 0.00–5.56 | 41% 26% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 2.35 1.30–3.40 1.03–3.66 | 2.44 1.31–3.57 1.02–3.86 | 4.79 2.61–6.97 2.05–7.52 | 39% 19% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.01 1.57–4.44 1.18–4.83 | 2.63 1.08–4.19 0.65–4.61 | 5.64 2.65–8.63 1.83–9.44 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+