Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Miguel Nogueira · Portugal
Goals
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.322.77safe0.48–2.410.46–2.180.95–4.59safer0.22–2.670.22–2.430.44–5.10actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.504.438.93safe2.64–6.362.72–6.145.37–12.49safer2.15–6.862.25–6.614.40–13.46actual7.003.0010.00
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3411.8924.22safe8.63–16.048.51–15.2617.14–31.31safer7.60–17.077.58–16.2015.18–33.27actual20.0012.0032.00
Shots in box
66%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.427.2816.70safe6.90–11.944.98–9.5911.89–21.52safer6.04–12.804.19–10.3810.23–23.18actual12.008.0020.00
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.663.447.11safe2.08–5.252.03–4.864.11–10.10safer1.54–5.781.54–5.343.09–11.12actual6.004.0010.00
Corners
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.924.359.27safe2.71–7.122.37–6.335.08–13.45safer2.12–7.721.83–6.873.95–14.58actual3.003.006.00
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction48.2252.64safe41.90–54.5446.32–58.96safer40.31–56.1344.72–60.56actual45.0055.00
Passes
39%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction426457882safe360–491392–521752–1012safer343–509374–539717–1047actual343425768
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction72.4278.16safe68.20–76.6373.66–82.67safer66.90–77.9372.32–84.00
Fouls
49%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8112.4925.30safe9.95–15.669.55–15.4419.50–31.10safer9.06–16.558.63–16.3517.69–32.90actual17.0012.0029.00
Offsides
49%
23%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.242.99safe0.54–2.960.08–2.410.62–5.36safer0.20–3.300.00–2.740.00–6.04actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
38%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.472.645.11safe1.42–3.531.52–3.762.94–7.29safer1.15–3.801.23–4.052.38–7.85actual3.003.006.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.120.20safe0.00–0.230.00–0.320.00–0.55safer0.00–0.390.00–0.460.00–0.84actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
35%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.452.785.23safe1.03–3.861.23–4.342.26–8.20safer0.64–4.250.80–4.771.44–9.02actual1.004.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.48–2.41 0.22–2.67 | 3.00 | 1.32 0.46–2.18 0.22–2.43 | 1.00 | 2.77 0.95–4.59 0.44–5.10 | 4.00 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.50 2.64–6.36 2.15–6.86 | 7.00 | 4.43 2.72–6.14 2.25–6.61 | 3.00 | 8.93 5.37–12.49 4.40–13.46 | 10.00 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 12.34 8.63–16.04 7.60–17.07 | 20.00 | 11.89 8.51–15.26 7.58–16.20 | 12.00 | 24.22 17.14–31.31 15.18–33.27 | 32.00 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 9.42 6.90–11.94 6.04–12.80 | 12.00 | 7.28 4.98–9.59 4.19–10.38 | 8.00 | 16.70 11.89–21.52 10.23–23.18 | 20.00 | 66% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 2.08–5.25 1.54–5.78 | 6.00 | 3.44 2.03–4.86 1.54–5.34 | 4.00 | 7.11 4.11–10.10 3.09–11.12 | 10.00 | 46% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 4.92 2.71–7.12 2.12–7.72 | 3.00 | 4.35 2.37–6.33 1.83–6.87 | 3.00 | 9.27 5.08–13.45 3.95–14.58 | 6.00 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Possession % | 48.22 41.90–54.54 40.31–56.13 | 45.00 | 52.64 46.32–58.96 44.72–60.56 | 55.00 | — | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 426 360–491 343–509 | 343 | 457 392–521 374–539 | 425 | 882 752–1012 717–1047 | 768 | 39% 60% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.42 68.20–76.63 66.90–77.93 | — | 78.16 73.66–82.67 72.32–84.00 | — | — | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 12.81 9.95–15.66 9.06–16.55 | 17.00 | 12.49 9.55–15.44 8.63–16.35 | 12.00 | 25.30 19.50–31.10 17.69–32.90 | 29.00 | 49% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.54–2.96 0.20–3.30 | 2.00 | 1.24 0.08–2.41 0.00–2.74 | 0.00 | 2.99 0.62–5.36 0.00–6.04 | 2.00 | 49% 23% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 2.47 1.42–3.53 1.15–3.80 | 3.00 | 2.64 1.52–3.76 1.23–4.05 | 3.00 | 5.11 2.94–7.29 2.38–7.85 | 6.00 | 38% 18% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 1.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 1.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.03–3.86 0.64–4.25 | 1.00 | 2.78 1.23–4.34 0.80–4.77 | 4.00 | 5.23 2.26–8.20 1.44–9.02 | 5.00 | 35% 18% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+