Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 7·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa · Portugal
Goals
55%
25%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.580.822.41safe0.62–2.550.00–1.680.58–4.23safer0.36–2.810.00–1.930.08–4.73actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
58%
14%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.403.367.77safe2.55–6.261.66–5.074.20–11.33safer2.05–6.761.19–5.543.23–12.30actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
64%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8210.5423.36safe9.12–16.527.16–13.9216.28–30.44safer8.09–17.556.23–14.8514.31–32.40actual19.0010.0029.00
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction10.315.0615.37safe7.80–12.832.75–7.3610.55–20.18safer6.93–13.691.96–8.158.89–21.85actual11.007.0018.00
Blocked shots
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.702.496.19safe2.11–5.281.08–3.913.19–9.19safer1.58–5.810.59–4.392.17–10.21actual7.003.0010.00
Corners
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.173.538.71safe2.97–7.381.56–5.514.53–12.89safer2.37–7.971.02–6.053.39–14.02actual4.003.007.00
Possession %
80%
16%
homeawayprediction57.1042.63safe50.78–63.4236.31–48.95safer49.19–65.0234.71–50.54actual60.0040.00
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction522387909safe456–587322–452779–1039safer439–605305–469744–1074actual506327833
Pass accuracy %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction75.5867.52safe71.36–79.7963.01–72.03safer70.06–81.0961.68–73.36
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7212.6024.32safe8.86–14.579.65–15.5418.51–30.12safer7.97–15.468.74–16.4616.71–31.92actual9.0014.0023.00
Offsides
48%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.182.82safe0.43–2.850.02–2.340.45–5.19safer0.08–3.190.00–2.680.00–5.87actual3.000.003.00
Yellow cards
35%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.124.00safe0.82–2.931.00–3.241.82–6.17safer0.54–3.200.71–3.531.26–6.74actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.440.00–0.85actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
32%
18%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.332.865.18safe0.91–3.741.30–4.412.21–8.15safer0.52–4.130.87–4.841.39–8.97actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 0.62–2.55 0.36–2.81 | 1.00 | 0.82 0.00–1.68 0.00–1.93 | 1.00 | 2.41 0.58–4.23 0.08–4.73 | 2.00 | 55% 25% 19% |
| Shots on target | 4.40 2.55–6.26 2.05–6.76 | 4.00 | 3.36 1.66–5.07 1.19–5.54 | 3.00 | 7.77 4.20–11.33 3.23–12.30 | 7.00 | 58% 14% 29% |
| Total shots | 12.82 9.12–16.52 8.09–17.55 | 19.00 | 10.54 7.16–13.92 6.23–14.85 | 10.00 | 23.36 16.28–30.44 14.31–32.40 | 29.00 | 64% 28% |
| Shots in box | 10.31 7.80–12.83 6.93–13.69 | 11.00 | 5.06 2.75–7.36 1.96–8.15 | 7.00 | 15.37 10.55–20.18 8.89–21.85 | 18.00 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 2.11–5.28 1.58–5.81 | 7.00 | 2.49 1.08–3.91 0.59–4.39 | 3.00 | 6.19 3.19–9.19 2.17–10.21 | 10.00 | 61% 15% 24% |
| Corners | 5.17 2.97–7.38 2.37–7.97 | 4.00 | 3.53 1.56–5.51 1.02–6.05 | 3.00 | 8.71 4.53–12.89 3.39–14.02 | 7.00 | 65% 23% |
| Possession % | 57.10 50.78–63.42 49.19–65.02 | 60.00 | 42.63 36.31–48.95 34.71–50.54 | 40.00 | — | — | 80% 16% |
| Passes | 522 456–587 439–605 | 506 | 387 322–452 305–469 | 327 | 909 779–1039 744–1074 | 833 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.58 71.36–79.79 70.06–81.09 | — | 67.52 63.01–72.03 61.68–73.36 | — | — | — | 83% 14% |
| Fouls | 11.72 8.86–14.57 7.97–15.46 | 9.00 | 12.60 9.65–15.54 8.74–16.46 | 14.00 | 24.32 18.51–30.12 16.71–31.92 | 23.00 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.43–2.85 0.08–3.19 | 3.00 | 1.18 0.02–2.34 0.00–2.68 | 0.00 | 2.82 0.45–5.19 0.00–5.87 | 3.00 | 48% 24% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.82–2.93 0.54–3.20 | 1.00 | 2.12 1.00–3.24 0.71–3.53 | 1.00 | 4.00 1.82–6.17 1.26–6.74 | 2.00 | 35% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.85 | 0.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.33 0.91–3.74 0.52–4.13 | 2.00 | 2.86 1.30–4.41 0.87–4.84 | 3.00 | 5.18 2.21–8.15 1.39–8.97 | 5.00 | 32% 18% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.