Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 24·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
25%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.061.592.65safe0.09–2.030.74–2.450.83–4.47safer0.00–2.280.51–2.680.35–4.95
Shots on target
24%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.334.778.10safe1.47–5.193.03–6.524.50–11.71safer0.98–5.682.57–6.983.54–12.66
Total shots
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6013.4925.09safe7.68–15.539.93–17.0517.60–32.58safer6.59–16.628.97–18.0115.55–34.63
Shots in box
22%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction6.559.0815.64safe3.61–9.506.40–11.7610.01–21.26safer2.78–10.325.66–12.508.45–22.83
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.143.066.20safe1.25–5.021.41–4.722.67–9.74safer0.71–5.560.92–5.211.63–10.77
Corners
39%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.474.849.31safe2.26–6.682.84–6.845.09–13.52safer1.68–7.262.30–7.373.98–14.63
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.2254.65safe38.43–52.0147.87–61.44safer36.76–53.6846.20–63.11
Passes
27%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction406479884safe338–473412–545751–1018safer320–491395–563715–1054
Pass accuracy %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction66.8973.92safe62.86–70.9269.60–78.24safer61.57–72.2168.29–79.55
Fouls
55%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7212.6126.33safe10.89–16.569.66–15.5520.55–32.12safer10.13–17.328.92–16.3019.05–33.62
Offsides
36%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.593.07safe0.32–2.640.50–2.690.82–5.32safer0.02–2.940.21–2.970.23–5.91
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.953.91safe0.92–3.010.82–3.081.73–6.09safer0.65–3.280.53–3.371.18–6.65
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
53%
17%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.012.325.33safe1.57–4.450.76–3.872.33–8.32safer1.19–4.830.34–4.301.52–9.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.06 0.09–2.03 0.00–2.28 | 1.59 0.74–2.45 0.51–2.68 | 2.65 0.83–4.47 0.35–4.95 | 25% 25% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.33 1.47–5.19 0.98–5.68 | 4.77 3.03–6.52 2.57–6.98 | 8.10 4.50–11.71 3.54–12.66 | 24% 63% |
| Total shots | 11.60 7.68–15.53 6.59–16.62 | 13.49 9.93–17.05 8.97–18.01 | 25.09 17.60–32.58 15.55–34.63 | 32% 61% |
| Shots in box | 6.55 3.61–9.50 2.78–10.32 | 9.08 6.40–11.76 5.66–12.50 | 15.64 10.01–21.26 8.45–22.83 | 22% 70% |
| Blocked shots | 3.14 1.25–5.02 0.71–5.56 | 3.06 1.41–4.72 0.92–5.21 | 6.20 2.67–9.74 1.63–10.77 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 4.47 2.26–6.68 1.68–7.26 | 4.84 2.84–6.84 2.30–7.37 | 9.31 5.09–13.52 3.98–14.63 | 39% 13% 48% |
| Possession % | 45.22 38.43–52.01 36.76–53.68 | 54.65 47.87–61.44 46.20–63.11 | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 406 338–473 320–491 | 479 412–545 395–563 | 884 751–1018 715–1054 | 27% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.89 62.86–70.92 61.57–72.21 | 73.92 69.60–78.24 68.29–79.55 | — | 17% 80% |
| Fouls | 13.72 10.89–16.56 10.13–17.32 | 12.61 9.66–15.55 8.92–16.30 | 26.33 20.55–32.12 19.05–33.62 | 55% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.32–2.64 0.02–2.94 | 1.59 0.50–2.69 0.21–2.97 | 3.07 0.82–5.32 0.23–5.91 | 36% 24% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.92–3.01 0.65–3.28 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.91 1.73–6.09 1.18–6.65 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.01 1.57–4.45 1.19–4.83 | 2.32 0.76–3.87 0.34–4.30 | 5.33 2.33–8.32 1.52–9.13 | 53% 17% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.