Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Gustavo Correia · Portugal
Goals
26%
28%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction0.901.292.20safe0.00–1.870.43–2.150.37–4.02safer0.00–2.130.19–2.400.00–4.53actual0.004.004.00
Shots on target
27%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.534.758.28safe1.68–5.393.04–6.464.72–11.85safer1.18–5.892.57–6.933.75–12.81actual3.007.0010.00
Total shots
21%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0613.4023.46safe6.35–13.7610.02–16.7816.38–30.54safer5.32–14.799.09–17.7114.42–32.50actual12.0012.0024.00
Shots in box
32%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction6.567.8614.42safe4.04–9.075.56–10.169.60–19.24safer3.17–9.944.76–10.967.94–20.90actual7.007.0014.00
Blocked shots
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.793.366.15safe1.21–4.381.94–4.773.15–9.14safer0.67–4.911.45–5.262.13–10.17actual3.002.005.00
Corners
27%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.815.098.90safe1.61–6.023.11–7.064.71–13.08safer1.01–6.612.57–7.603.58–14.21actual7.003.0010.00
Possession %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction46.4252.69safe40.11–52.7446.38–59.01safer38.51–54.3444.78–60.61actual55.0045.00
Passes
36%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction391431822safe326–456367–496693–952safer308–474349–514657–988actual487403890
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction71.4174.63safe67.19–75.6270.12–79.13safer65.89–76.9268.79–80.46
Fouls
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1211.7625.88safe11.27–16.988.81–14.7020.08–31.69safer10.38–17.877.90–15.6218.28–33.49actual11.0010.0021.00
Offsides
31%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.853.32safe0.26–2.680.68–3.010.94–5.69safer0.00–3.020.35–3.340.27–6.36actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
41%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.712.715.42safe1.66–3.771.59–3.833.25–7.60safer1.39–4.041.30–4.122.68–8.16actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
13%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.110.27safe0.00–0.310.00–0.310.00–0.61safer0.00–0.460.00–0.450.00–0.91actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
55%
17%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.932.155.08safe1.52–4.350.60–3.702.11–8.05safer1.13–4.730.16–4.141.29–8.87actual3.003.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.90 0.00–1.87 0.00–2.13 | 0.00 | 1.29 0.43–2.15 0.19–2.40 | 4.00 | 2.20 0.37–4.02 0.00–4.53 | 4.00 | 26% 28% 46% |
| Shots on target | 3.53 1.68–5.39 1.18–5.89 | 3.00 | 4.75 3.04–6.46 2.57–6.93 | 7.00 | 8.28 4.72–11.85 3.75–12.81 | 10.00 | 27% 60% |
| Total shots | 10.06 6.35–13.76 5.32–14.79 | 12.00 | 13.40 10.02–16.78 9.09–17.71 | 12.00 | 23.46 16.38–30.54 14.42–32.50 | 24.00 | 21% 72% |
| Shots in box | 6.56 4.04–9.07 3.17–9.94 | 7.00 | 7.86 5.56–10.16 4.76–10.96 | 7.00 | 14.42 9.60–19.24 7.94–20.90 | 14.00 | 32% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 2.79 1.21–4.38 0.67–4.91 | 3.00 | 3.36 1.94–4.77 1.45–5.26 | 2.00 | 6.15 3.15–9.14 2.13–10.17 | 5.00 | 33% 16% 51% |
| Corners | 3.81 1.61–6.02 1.01–6.61 | 7.00 | 5.09 3.11–7.06 2.57–7.60 | 3.00 | 8.90 4.71–13.08 3.58–14.21 | 10.00 | 27% 60% |
| Possession % | 46.42 40.11–52.74 38.51–54.34 | 55.00 | 52.69 46.38–59.01 44.78–60.61 | 45.00 | — | — | 32% 63% |
| Passes | 391 326–456 308–474 | 487 | 431 367–496 349–514 | 403 | 822 693–952 657–988 | 890 | 36% 63% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.41 67.19–75.62 65.89–76.92 | — | 74.63 70.12–79.13 68.79–80.46 | — | — | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 14.12 11.27–16.98 10.38–17.87 | 11.00 | 11.76 8.81–14.70 7.90–15.62 | 10.00 | 25.88 20.08–31.69 18.28–33.49 | 21.00 | 64% 29% |
| Offsides | 1.47 0.26–2.68 0.00–3.02 | 0.00 | 1.85 0.68–3.01 0.35–3.34 | 1.00 | 3.32 0.94–5.69 0.27–6.36 | 1.00 | 31% 23% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 2.71 1.66–3.77 1.39–4.04 | 1.00 | 2.71 1.59–3.83 1.30–4.12 | 3.00 | 5.42 3.25–7.60 2.68–8.16 | 4.00 | 41% 18% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 1.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.27 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.91 | 1.00 | 13% 78% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.52–4.35 1.13–4.73 | 3.00 | 2.15 0.60–3.70 0.16–4.14 | 3.00 | 5.08 2.11–8.05 1.29–8.87 | 6.00 | 55% 17% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+