Predicted match statistics
Goals
60%
24%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.690.762.44safe0.72–2.650.00–1.610.62–4.26safer0.47–2.910.00–1.840.14–4.74
Shots on target
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.982.817.79safe3.12–6.841.07–4.554.18–11.39safer2.63–7.330.60–5.023.23–12.35
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction14.968.6923.64safe11.03–18.885.13–12.2516.16–31.13safer9.94–19.974.17–13.2114.11–33.18
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction9.625.1714.80safe6.68–12.572.49–7.859.17–20.42safer5.85–13.401.75–8.597.61–21.99
Blocked shots
71%
13%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction3.741.925.66safe1.86–5.620.26–3.572.12–9.19safer1.32–6.170.00–4.061.09–10.23
Corners
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction6.093.279.36safe3.88–8.311.27–5.275.14–13.57safer3.30–8.880.73–5.804.04–14.68
Possession %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction56.5743.94safe49.78–63.3637.16–50.73safer48.11–65.0335.49–52.40
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction497387884safe430–564321–453750–1018safer412–583303–471715–1053
Pass accuracy %
67%
28%
homeawayprediction75.6871.72safe71.65–79.7167.40–76.05safer70.36–81.0066.09–77.35
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6313.8625.49safe8.79–14.4710.92–16.8119.71–31.28safer8.04–15.2310.17–17.5518.21–32.78
Offsides
49%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.262.99safe0.57–2.890.16–2.350.74–5.24safer0.27–3.190.00–2.640.15–5.83
Yellow cards
23%
18%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.722.734.44safe0.67–2.761.60–3.862.27–6.62safer0.40–3.031.31–4.151.71–7.18
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.140.27safe0.00–0.300.00–0.330.00–0.62safer0.00–0.450.00–0.460.00–0.90
GK saves
21%
15%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.063.435.49safe0.63–3.501.87–4.982.50–8.48safer0.24–3.891.44–5.411.68–9.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 0.72–2.65 0.47–2.91 | 0.76 0.00–1.61 0.00–1.84 | 2.44 0.62–4.26 0.14–4.74 | 60% 24% 17% |
| Shots on target | 4.98 3.12–6.84 2.63–7.33 | 2.81 1.07–4.55 0.60–5.02 | 7.79 4.18–11.39 3.23–12.35 | 73% 17% |
| Total shots | 14.96 11.03–18.88 9.94–19.97 | 8.69 5.13–12.25 4.17–13.21 | 23.64 16.16–31.13 14.11–33.18 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 9.62 6.68–12.57 5.85–13.40 | 5.17 2.49–7.85 1.75–8.59 | 14.80 9.17–20.42 7.61–21.99 | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 1.86–5.62 1.32–6.17 | 1.92 0.26–3.57 0.00–4.06 | 5.66 2.12–9.19 1.09–10.23 | 71% 13% 16% |
| Corners | 6.09 3.88–8.31 3.30–8.88 | 3.27 1.27–5.27 0.73–5.80 | 9.36 5.14–13.57 4.04–14.68 | 78% 13% |
| Possession % | 56.57 49.78–63.36 48.11–65.03 | 43.94 37.16–50.73 35.49–52.40 | — | 75% 21% |
| Passes | 497 430–564 412–583 | 387 321–453 303–471 | 884 750–1018 715–1053 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.68 71.65–79.71 70.36–81.00 | 71.72 67.40–76.05 66.09–77.35 | — | 67% 28% |
| Fouls | 11.63 8.79–14.47 8.04–15.23 | 13.86 10.92–16.81 10.17–17.55 | 25.49 19.71–31.28 18.21–32.78 | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.57–2.89 0.27–3.19 | 1.26 0.16–2.35 0.00–2.64 | 2.99 0.74–5.24 0.15–5.83 | 49% 24% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.76 0.40–3.03 | 2.73 1.60–3.86 1.31–4.15 | 4.44 2.27–6.62 1.71–7.18 | 23% 18% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.06 0.63–3.50 0.24–3.89 | 3.43 1.87–4.98 1.44–5.41 | 5.49 2.50–8.48 1.68–9.29 | 21% 15% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.