Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 7·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo · Portugal
Goals
28%
28%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction0.981.292.27safe0.02–1.940.43–2.150.45–4.09safer0.00–2.200.19–2.400.00–4.60actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
36%
15%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.523.997.51safe1.67–5.382.28–5.703.95–11.08safer1.17–5.881.82–6.172.98–12.04actual1.001.002.00
Total shots
50%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4010.8822.28safe7.70–15.107.50–14.2615.20–29.37safer6.67–16.136.57–15.1913.24–31.33actual10.008.0018.00
Shots in box
40%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction6.687.1513.83safe4.16–9.194.85–9.459.01–18.65safer3.30–10.064.05–10.257.35–20.31actual5.005.0010.00
Blocked shots
44%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.072.956.01safe1.48–4.651.53–4.363.02–9.01safer0.95–5.181.05–4.851.99–10.03actual4.002.006.00
Corners
37%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.414.899.30safe2.20–6.612.91–6.875.11–13.48safer1.61–7.212.37–7.403.98–14.61actual5.005.0010.00
Possession %
84%
homeawayprediction41.4858.49safe35.16–47.8052.17–64.81safer33.56–49.3950.58–66.41actual48.0052.00
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction357551908safe292–422486–616778–1038safer274–440469–633743–1073actual433471904
Pass accuracy %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction65.8774.25safe61.66–70.0969.74–78.75safer60.35–71.3968.41–80.08
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7213.4626.18safe9.86–15.5710.52–16.4120.37–31.98safer8.97–16.469.60–17.3218.57–33.78actual13.0013.0026.00
Offsides
27%
22%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.402.013.42safe0.20–2.610.85–3.181.05–5.79safer0.00–2.960.52–3.510.37–6.47actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
39%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.312.404.71safe1.26–3.371.28–3.522.53–6.89safer0.98–3.640.99–3.811.97–7.45actual4.003.007.00
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.110.25safe0.00–0.290.00–0.300.00–0.59safer0.00–0.440.00–0.450.00–0.89actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.362.404.76safe0.94–3.770.85–3.961.79–7.73safer0.56–4.160.42–4.390.97–8.55actual1.001.002.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 0.02–1.94 0.00–2.20 | 0.00 | 1.29 0.43–2.15 0.19–2.40 | 0.00 | 2.27 0.45–4.09 0.00–4.60 | 0.00 | 28% 28% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.52 1.67–5.38 1.17–5.88 | 1.00 | 3.99 2.28–5.70 1.82–6.17 | 1.00 | 7.51 3.95–11.08 2.98–12.04 | 2.00 | 36% 15% 49% |
| Total shots | 11.40 7.70–15.10 6.67–16.13 | 10.00 | 10.88 7.50–14.26 6.57–15.19 | 8.00 | 22.28 15.20–29.37 13.24–31.33 | 18.00 | 50% 41% |
| Shots in box | 6.68 4.16–9.19 3.30–10.06 | 5.00 | 7.15 4.85–9.45 4.05–10.25 | 5.00 | 13.83 9.01–18.65 7.35–20.31 | 10.00 | 40% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.07 1.48–4.65 0.95–5.18 | 4.00 | 2.95 1.53–4.36 1.05–4.85 | 2.00 | 6.01 3.02–9.01 1.99–10.03 | 6.00 | 44% 17% 40% |
| Corners | 4.41 2.20–6.61 1.61–7.21 | 5.00 | 4.89 2.91–6.87 2.37–7.40 | 5.00 | 9.30 5.11–13.48 3.98–14.61 | 10.00 | 37% 13% 50% |
| Possession % | 41.48 35.16–47.80 33.56–49.39 | 48.00 | 58.49 52.17–64.81 50.58–66.41 | 52.00 | — | — | 84% |
| Passes | 357 292–422 274–440 | 433 | 551 486–616 469–633 | 471 | 908 778–1038 743–1073 | 904 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.87 61.66–70.09 60.35–71.39 | — | 74.25 69.74–78.75 68.41–80.08 | — | — | — | 13% 84% |
| Fouls | 12.72 9.86–15.57 8.97–16.46 | 13.00 | 13.46 10.52–16.41 9.60–17.32 | 13.00 | 26.18 20.37–31.98 18.57–33.78 | 26.00 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.40 0.20–2.61 0.00–2.96 | 2.00 | 2.01 0.85–3.18 0.52–3.51 | 2.00 | 3.42 1.05–5.79 0.37–6.47 | 4.00 | 27% 22% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 2.31 1.26–3.37 0.98–3.64 | 4.00 | 2.40 1.28–3.52 0.99–3.81 | 3.00 | 4.71 2.53–6.89 1.97–7.45 | 7.00 | 39% 19% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.00 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.89 | 0.00 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.36 0.94–3.77 0.56–4.16 | 1.00 | 2.40 0.85–3.96 0.42–4.39 | 1.00 | 4.76 1.79–7.73 0.97–8.55 | 2.00 | 40% 19% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.