Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 24·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
25%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.002.64safe0.67–2.610.14–1.850.81–4.46safer0.42–2.860.00–2.080.33–4.94
Shots on target
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.823.077.89safe2.96–6.681.33–4.824.29–11.50safer2.47–7.170.86–5.283.33–12.45
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1810.5924.77safe10.25–18.107.03–14.1617.29–32.26safer9.16–19.196.07–15.1215.23–34.31
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction8.876.4515.32safe5.93–11.813.77–9.149.70–20.95safer5.10–12.643.04–9.878.13–22.51
Blocked shots
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.402.626.02safe1.51–5.280.97–4.282.49–9.56safer0.97–5.820.48–4.771.45–10.59
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.073.399.46safe3.86–8.281.39–5.395.25–13.67safer3.28–8.860.86–5.924.14–14.78
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction59.0140.29safe52.22–65.8033.50–47.07safer50.55–67.4731.83–48.75
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction576380955safe508–643313–446821–1089safer490–661296–464786–1124
Pass accuracy %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction75.1568.69safe71.12–79.1864.36–73.01safer69.83–80.4763.05–74.32
Fouls
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2913.6026.89safe10.45–16.1210.66–16.5521.11–32.67safer9.69–16.889.91–17.3019.60–34.18
Offsides
57%
20%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.323.50safe1.02–3.340.22–2.411.25–5.75safer0.72–3.650.00–2.700.66–6.34
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.114.03safe0.87–2.970.98–3.241.85–6.21safer0.60–3.240.69–3.531.29–6.76
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
27%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.263.155.41safe0.83–3.701.59–4.702.42–8.40safer0.44–4.091.16–5.131.61–9.21
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.64 0.67–2.61 0.42–2.86 | 1.00 0.14–1.85 0.00–2.08 | 2.64 0.81–4.46 0.33–4.94 | 52% 25% 23% |
| Shots on target | 4.82 2.96–6.68 2.47–7.17 | 3.07 1.33–4.82 0.86–5.28 | 7.89 4.29–11.50 3.33–12.45 | 67% 21% |
| Total shots | 14.18 10.25–18.10 9.16–19.19 | 10.59 7.03–14.16 6.07–15.12 | 24.77 17.29–32.26 15.23–34.31 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 8.87 5.93–11.81 5.10–12.64 | 6.45 3.77–9.14 3.04–9.87 | 15.32 9.70–20.95 8.13–22.51 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 3.40 1.51–5.28 0.97–5.82 | 2.62 0.97–4.28 0.48–4.77 | 6.02 2.49–9.56 1.45–10.59 | 54% 16% 30% |
| Corners | 6.07 3.86–8.28 3.28–8.86 | 3.39 1.39–5.39 0.86–5.92 | 9.46 5.25–13.67 4.14–14.78 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 59.01 52.22–65.80 50.55–67.47 | 40.29 33.50–47.07 31.83–48.75 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 576 508–643 490–661 | 380 313–446 296–464 | 955 821–1089 786–1124 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.15 71.12–79.18 69.83–80.47 | 68.69 64.36–73.01 63.05–74.32 | — | 78% 18% |
| Fouls | 13.29 10.45–16.12 9.69–16.88 | 13.60 10.66–16.55 9.91–17.30 | 26.89 21.11–32.67 19.60–34.18 | 44% 49% |
| Offsides | 2.18 1.02–3.34 0.72–3.65 | 1.32 0.22–2.41 0.00–2.70 | 3.50 1.25–5.75 0.66–6.34 | 57% 20% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.60–3.24 | 2.11 0.98–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 4.03 1.85–6.21 1.29–6.76 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.26 0.83–3.70 0.44–4.09 | 3.15 1.59–4.70 1.16–5.13 | 5.41 2.42–8.40 1.61–9.21 | 27% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+