Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 7·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: David Rafael Oliveira da Silva · Portugal
Goals
81%
homeawaytotalprediction2.730.663.40safe1.77–3.690.00–1.521.57–5.22safer1.51–3.950.00–1.771.07–5.72actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
94%
homeawaytotalprediction7.482.349.82safe5.62–9.340.63–4.056.26–13.38safer5.13–9.840.16–4.525.29–14.35actual3.005.008.00
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction19.237.0926.33safe15.53–22.943.71–10.4719.24–33.41safer14.50–23.972.78–11.4017.28–35.37actual10.0015.0025.00
Shots in box
98%
homeawaytotalprediction13.274.3817.66safe10.76–15.792.08–6.6912.84–22.47safer9.89–16.651.29–7.4811.18–24.13actual8.008.0016.00
Blocked shots
79%
homeawaytotalprediction4.341.866.20safe2.76–5.920.44–3.273.20–9.20safer2.22–6.460.00–3.762.18–10.22actual5.001.006.00
Corners
89%
homeawaytotalprediction7.012.769.77safe4.80–9.210.78–4.745.59–13.95safer4.21–9.810.24–5.284.45–15.08actual4.002.006.00
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction58.7041.39safe52.39–65.0235.07–47.71safer50.79–66.6233.47–49.31actual54.0046.00
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction552388940safe487–617324–453811–1070safer469–635306–471775–1106actual474389863
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction85.7072.89safe81.49–89.9268.38–77.39safer80.19–91.2267.05–78.72
Fouls
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4512.8623.31safe7.59–13.319.91–15.8017.50–29.11safer6.71–14.198.99–16.7215.70–30.91actual9.0017.0026.00
Offsides
57%
21%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.183.22safe0.83–3.250.02–2.350.85–5.59safer0.48–3.590.00–2.680.17–6.27actual2.000.002.00
Yellow cards
20%
16%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction1.763.104.86safe0.70–2.811.98–4.222.68–7.03safer0.43–3.091.69–4.512.12–7.60actual3.005.008.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.140.19safe0.00–0.210.00–0.330.00–0.54safer0.00–0.360.00–0.480.00–0.84actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
82%
homeawaytotalprediction1.704.476.17safe0.29–3.112.91–6.023.20–9.14safer0.00–3.502.48–6.452.38–9.96actual4.001.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.73 1.77–3.69 1.51–3.95 | 2.00 | 0.66 0.00–1.52 0.00–1.77 | 2.00 | 3.40 1.57–5.22 1.07–5.72 | 4.00 | 81% |
| Shots on target | 7.48 5.62–9.34 5.13–9.84 | 3.00 | 2.34 0.63–4.05 0.16–4.52 | 5.00 | 9.82 6.26–13.38 5.29–14.35 | 8.00 | 94% |
| Total shots | 19.23 15.53–22.94 14.50–23.97 | 10.00 | 7.09 3.71–10.47 2.78–11.40 | 15.00 | 26.33 19.24–33.41 17.28–35.37 | 25.00 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 13.27 10.76–15.79 9.89–16.65 | 8.00 | 4.38 2.08–6.69 1.29–7.48 | 8.00 | 17.66 12.84–22.47 11.18–24.13 | 16.00 | 98% |
| Blocked shots | 4.34 2.76–5.92 2.22–6.46 | 5.00 | 1.86 0.44–3.27 0.00–3.76 | 1.00 | 6.20 3.20–9.20 2.18–10.22 | 6.00 | 79% |
| Corners | 7.01 4.80–9.21 4.21–9.81 | 4.00 | 2.76 0.78–4.74 0.24–5.28 | 2.00 | 9.77 5.59–13.95 4.45–15.08 | 6.00 | 89% |
| Possession % | 58.70 52.39–65.02 50.79–66.62 | 54.00 | 41.39 35.07–47.71 33.47–49.31 | 46.00 | — | — | 85% |
| Passes | 552 487–617 469–635 | 474 | 388 324–453 306–471 | 389 | 940 811–1070 775–1106 | 863 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.70 81.49–89.92 80.19–91.22 | — | 72.89 68.38–77.39 67.05–78.72 | — | — | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 10.45 7.59–13.31 6.71–14.19 | 9.00 | 12.86 9.91–15.80 8.99–16.72 | 17.00 | 23.31 17.50–29.11 15.70–30.91 | 26.00 | 27% 65% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.83–3.25 0.48–3.59 | 2.00 | 1.18 0.02–2.35 0.00–2.68 | 0.00 | 3.22 0.85–5.59 0.17–6.27 | 2.00 | 57% 21% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.70–2.81 0.43–3.09 | 3.00 | 3.10 1.98–4.22 1.69–4.51 | 5.00 | 4.86 2.68–7.03 2.12–7.60 | 8.00 | 20% 16% 65% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 1.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 1.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 1.70 0.29–3.11 0.00–3.50 | 4.00 | 4.47 2.91–6.02 2.48–6.45 | 1.00 | 6.17 3.20–9.14 2.38–9.96 | 5.00 | 82% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.