Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 24·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
16%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction0.782.403.18safe0.00–1.751.54–3.251.36–5.00safer0.00–2.001.32–3.480.88–5.48
Shots on target
83%
homeawaytotalprediction2.746.088.82safe0.88–4.604.34–7.825.22–12.43safer0.39–5.093.87–8.294.26–13.38
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction8.4216.3324.75safe4.49–12.3412.77–19.8917.26–32.24safer3.40–13.4411.81–20.8515.21–34.29
Shots in box
93%
homeawaytotalprediction4.8711.2116.08safe1.93–7.818.53–13.8910.46–21.71safer1.10–8.647.79–14.638.89–23.27
Blocked shots
16%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction2.414.486.89safe0.53–4.292.83–6.143.36–10.43safer0.00–4.832.34–6.632.32–11.46
Corners
84%
homeawaytotalprediction2.986.449.42safe0.77–5.204.44–8.445.21–13.63safer0.20–5.773.90–8.974.10–14.74
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction39.2661.70safe32.47–46.0554.92–68.49safer30.80–47.7253.24–70.16
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction360561921safe293–427495–628788–1055safer275–446477–645752–1091
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction67.7381.37safe63.70–71.7677.05–85.70safer62.41–73.0575.74–87.01
Fouls
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0111.5625.57safe11.17–16.858.61–14.5019.78–31.35safer10.41–17.607.87–15.2518.28–32.85
Offsides
24%
21%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.342.143.49safe0.18–2.501.05–3.231.23–5.74safer0.00–2.810.76–3.520.64–6.33
Yellow cards
58%
16%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.162.195.35safe2.11–4.211.06–3.323.17–7.53safer1.84–4.470.77–3.612.61–8.09
Red cards
20%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction0.260.130.38safe0.10–0.420.00–0.310.04–0.73safer0.00–0.570.00–0.450.00–1.01
GK saves
73%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.022.046.06safe2.59–5.460.48–3.593.07–9.05safer2.20–5.850.06–4.022.26–9.87
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.78 0.00–1.75 0.00–2.00 | 2.40 1.54–3.25 1.32–3.48 | 3.18 1.36–5.00 0.88–5.48 | 16% 73% |
| Shots on target | 2.74 0.88–4.60 0.39–5.09 | 6.08 4.34–7.82 3.87–8.29 | 8.82 5.22–12.43 4.26–13.38 | 83% |
| Total shots | 8.42 4.49–12.34 3.40–13.44 | 16.33 12.77–19.89 11.81–20.85 | 24.75 17.26–32.24 15.21–34.29 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 4.87 1.93–7.81 1.10–8.64 | 11.21 8.53–13.89 7.79–14.63 | 16.08 10.46–21.71 8.89–23.27 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 2.41 0.53–4.29 0.00–4.83 | 4.48 2.83–6.14 2.34–6.63 | 6.89 3.36–10.43 2.32–11.46 | 16% 73% |
| Corners | 2.98 0.77–5.20 0.20–5.77 | 6.44 4.44–8.44 3.90–8.97 | 9.42 5.21–13.63 4.10–14.74 | 84% |
| Possession % | 39.26 32.47–46.05 30.80–47.72 | 61.70 54.92–68.49 53.24–70.16 | — | 90% |
| Passes | 360 293–427 275–446 | 561 495–628 477–645 | 921 788–1055 752–1091 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.73 63.70–71.76 62.41–73.05 | 81.37 77.05–85.70 75.74–87.01 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 14.01 11.17–16.85 10.41–17.60 | 11.56 8.61–14.50 7.87–15.25 | 25.57 19.78–31.35 18.28–32.85 | 65% 28% |
| Offsides | 1.34 0.18–2.50 0.00–2.81 | 2.14 1.05–3.23 0.76–3.52 | 3.49 1.23–5.74 0.64–6.33 | 24% 21% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 3.16 2.11–4.21 1.84–4.47 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 5.35 3.17–7.53 2.61–8.09 | 58% 16% 26% |
| Red cards | 0.26 0.10–0.42 0.00–0.57 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.38 0.04–0.73 0.00–1.01 | 20% 70% |
| GK saves | 4.02 2.59–5.46 2.20–5.85 | 2.04 0.48–3.59 0.06–4.02 | 6.06 3.07–9.05 2.26–9.87 | 73% 15% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.