Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 7·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Sergio Guelho · Portugal
Goals
60%
24%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction1.680.732.41safe0.71–2.640.00–1.590.58–4.23safer0.45–2.900.00–1.830.08–4.73actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
77%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction5.292.687.97safe3.44–7.150.97–4.394.41–11.54safer2.94–7.650.50–4.863.44–12.50actual5.003.008.00
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction16.198.5624.75safe12.49–19.895.18–11.9417.67–31.83safer11.46–20.924.25–12.8715.71–33.80actual15.007.0022.00
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction10.254.9715.22safe7.73–12.762.67–7.2710.40–20.04safer6.87–13.631.87–8.078.74–21.70actual10.004.0014.00
Blocked shots
72%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.402.376.77safe2.82–5.990.95–3.783.77–9.77safer2.28–6.520.47–4.272.75–10.79actual3.000.003.00
Corners
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.073.189.24safe3.86–8.271.20–5.155.06–13.43safer3.27–8.870.66–5.693.93–14.56actual3.000.003.00
Possession %
77%
20%
homeawayprediction56.8444.38safe50.52–63.1638.06–50.69safer48.93–64.7636.46–52.29actual66.0034.00
Passes
80%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction445347792safe379–510283–412662–922safer362–528265–430627–957actual642331973
Pass accuracy %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction73.6667.53safe69.44–77.8763.03–72.04safer68.14–79.1761.69–73.37
Fouls
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0612.5426.60safe11.20–16.929.59–15.4820.79–32.40safer10.32–17.808.67–16.4018.99–34.20actual11.0012.0023.00
Offsides
52%
21%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.181.533.71safe0.97–3.390.37–2.701.34–6.09safer0.63–3.730.04–3.030.67–6.76actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
32%
18%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.292.805.09safe1.24–3.351.68–3.922.91–7.26safer0.96–3.621.39–4.212.35–7.83actual0.000.000.00
Red cards
75%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.150.30safe0.00–0.310.00–0.340.00–0.65safer0.00–0.460.00–0.480.00–0.95actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
76%
homeawaytotalprediction1.633.745.37safe0.22–3.042.18–5.292.40–8.34safer0.00–3.431.75–5.721.58–9.16actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.71–2.64 0.45–2.90 | 1.00 | 0.73 0.00–1.59 0.00–1.83 | 1.00 | 2.41 0.58–4.23 0.08–4.73 | 2.00 | 60% 24% 16% |
| Shots on target | 5.29 3.44–7.15 2.94–7.65 | 5.00 | 2.68 0.97–4.39 0.50–4.86 | 3.00 | 7.97 4.41–11.54 3.44–12.50 | 8.00 | 77% 13% |
| Total shots | 16.19 12.49–19.89 11.46–20.92 | 15.00 | 8.56 5.18–11.94 4.25–12.87 | 7.00 | 24.75 17.67–31.83 15.71–33.80 | 22.00 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 10.25 7.73–12.76 6.87–13.63 | 10.00 | 4.97 2.67–7.27 1.87–8.07 | 4.00 | 15.22 10.40–20.04 8.74–21.70 | 14.00 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 4.40 2.82–5.99 2.28–6.52 | 3.00 | 2.37 0.95–3.78 0.47–4.27 | 0.00 | 6.77 3.77–9.77 2.75–10.79 | 3.00 | 72% 16% |
| Corners | 6.07 3.86–8.27 3.27–8.87 | 3.00 | 3.18 1.20–5.15 0.66–5.69 | 0.00 | 9.24 5.06–13.43 3.93–14.56 | 3.00 | 79% |
| Possession % | 56.84 50.52–63.16 48.93–64.76 | 66.00 | 44.38 38.06–50.69 36.46–52.29 | 34.00 | — | — | 77% 20% |
| Passes | 445 379–510 362–528 | 642 | 347 283–412 265–430 | 331 | 792 662–922 627–957 | 973 | 80% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.66 69.44–77.87 68.14–79.17 | — | 67.53 63.03–72.04 61.69–73.37 | — | — | — | 76% 20% |
| Fouls | 14.06 11.20–16.92 10.32–17.80 | 11.00 | 12.54 9.59–15.48 8.67–16.40 | 12.00 | 26.60 20.79–32.40 18.99–34.20 | 23.00 | 58% 35% |
| Offsides | 2.18 0.97–3.39 0.63–3.73 | 1.00 | 1.53 0.37–2.70 0.04–3.03 | 0.00 | 3.71 1.34–6.09 0.67–6.76 | 1.00 | 52% 21% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 2.29 1.24–3.35 0.96–3.62 | 0.00 | 2.80 1.68–3.92 1.39–4.21 | 0.00 | 5.09 2.91–7.26 2.35–7.83 | 0.00 | 32% 18% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.30 0.00–0.65 0.00–0.95 | 0.00 | 75% |
| GK saves | 1.63 0.22–3.04 0.00–3.43 | 2.00 | 3.74 2.18–5.29 1.75–5.72 | 2.00 | 5.37 2.40–8.34 1.58–9.16 | 4.00 | 76% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+