Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 24·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
23%
25%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.632.62safe0.02–1.960.77–2.480.80–4.44safer0.00–2.210.55–2.710.32–4.92
Shots on target
23%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.525.158.68safe1.66–5.393.41–6.905.07–12.28safer1.17–5.872.95–7.364.12–13.24
Total shots
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2013.8825.07safe7.27–15.1210.31–17.4417.59–32.56safer6.18–16.219.36–18.4015.54–34.61
Shots in box
26%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction6.979.0816.06safe4.03–9.926.40–11.7710.43–21.68safer3.20–10.755.67–12.508.87–23.25
Blocked shots
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.973.446.41safe1.08–4.851.79–5.092.87–9.94safer0.54–5.391.30–5.591.84–10.98
Corners
24%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.985.669.64safe1.77–6.193.66–7.665.42–13.85safer1.19–6.773.12–8.194.31–14.96
Possession %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction41.7357.46safe34.94–48.5250.68–64.25safer33.27–50.1949.01–65.92
Passes
19%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction358462820safe291–426395–528686–954safer273–444378–546651–989
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction64.6373.64safe60.60–68.6669.32–77.97safer59.31–69.9568.01–79.28
Fouls
27%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2416.0529.29safe10.40–16.0713.11–19.0023.51–35.07safer9.64–16.8312.36–19.7422.00–36.58
Offsides
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.033.87safe0.68–3.000.93–3.121.62–6.12safer0.38–3.300.65–3.411.03–6.71
Yellow cards
35%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.192.534.72safe1.14–3.241.40–3.662.54–6.90safer0.88–3.511.11–3.951.99–7.46
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.130.23safe0.00–0.260.00–0.320.00–0.58safer0.00–0.410.00–0.450.00–0.86
GK saves
58%
16%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.312.315.62safe1.88–4.750.76–3.872.63–8.61safer1.49–5.130.33–4.291.82–9.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.02–1.96 0.00–2.21 | 1.63 0.77–2.48 0.55–2.71 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.32–4.92 | 23% 25% 52% |
| Shots on target | 3.52 1.66–5.39 1.17–5.87 | 5.15 3.41–6.90 2.95–7.36 | 8.68 5.07–12.28 4.12–13.24 | 23% 65% |
| Total shots | 11.20 7.27–15.12 6.18–16.21 | 13.88 10.31–17.44 9.36–18.40 | 25.07 17.59–32.56 15.54–34.61 | 26% 67% |
| Shots in box | 6.97 4.03–9.92 3.20–10.75 | 9.08 6.40–11.77 5.67–12.50 | 16.06 10.43–21.68 8.87–23.25 | 26% 66% |
| Blocked shots | 2.97 1.08–4.85 0.54–5.39 | 3.44 1.79–5.09 1.30–5.59 | 6.41 2.87–9.94 1.84–10.98 | 35% 16% 49% |
| Corners | 3.98 1.77–6.19 1.19–6.77 | 5.66 3.66–7.66 3.12–8.19 | 9.64 5.42–13.85 4.31–14.96 | 24% 65% |
| Possession % | 41.73 34.94–48.52 33.27–50.19 | 57.46 50.68–64.25 49.01–65.92 | — | 16% 81% |
| Passes | 358 291–426 273–444 | 462 395–528 378–546 | 820 686–954 651–989 | 19% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.63 60.60–68.66 59.31–69.95 | 73.64 69.32–77.97 68.01–79.28 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 13.24 10.40–16.07 9.64–16.83 | 16.05 13.11–19.00 12.36–19.74 | 29.29 23.51–35.07 22.00–36.58 | 27% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.38–3.30 | 2.03 0.93–3.12 0.65–3.41 | 3.87 1.62–6.12 1.03–6.71 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.19 1.14–3.24 0.88–3.51 | 2.53 1.40–3.66 1.11–3.95 | 4.72 2.54–6.90 1.99–7.46 | 35% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.31 1.88–4.75 1.49–5.13 | 2.31 0.76–3.87 0.33–4.29 | 5.62 2.63–8.61 1.82–9.43 | 58% 16% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.