Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 8·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
27%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.121.302.42safe0.16–2.090.44–2.150.60–4.25safer0.00–2.340.22–2.380.12–4.73
Shots on target
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.114.298.40safe2.25–5.972.55–6.034.79–12.00safer1.76–6.462.08–6.503.84–12.96
Total shots
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3613.2225.57safe8.43–16.289.65–16.7818.09–33.06safer7.34–17.378.69–17.7416.04–35.11
Shots in box
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction7.308.2615.55safe4.35–10.245.58–10.949.93–21.18safer3.53–11.074.84–11.678.36–22.74
Blocked shots
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.023.406.42safe1.14–4.901.74–5.052.88–9.95safer0.59–5.441.25–5.541.85–10.99
Corners
41%
13%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.694.889.57safe2.48–6.912.88–6.885.36–13.78safer1.91–7.482.35–7.414.25–14.89
Possession %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction49.6249.86safe42.83–56.4143.07–56.64safer41.16–58.0841.40–58.31
Passes
53%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction444434877safe377–511367–500744–1011safer358–529350–518708–1047
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction70.3371.46safe66.30–74.3667.13–75.78safer65.01–75.6565.82–77.09
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0012.5624.56safe9.17–14.849.61–15.5018.78–30.34safer8.41–15.608.87–16.2517.28–31.85
Offsides
53%
22%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.021.333.35safe0.86–3.180.24–2.421.10–5.60safer0.56–3.480.00–2.710.51–6.19
Yellow cards
33%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.992.374.37safe0.94–3.041.24–3.502.19–6.55safer0.68–3.310.95–3.791.63–7.10
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.120.19safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.440.00–0.82
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.062.735.78safe1.62–4.491.17–4.282.79–8.77safer1.23–4.880.75–4.711.98–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 0.16–2.09 0.00–2.34 | 1.30 0.44–2.15 0.22–2.38 | 2.42 0.60–4.25 0.12–4.73 | 32% 27% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.11 2.25–5.97 1.76–6.46 | 4.29 2.55–6.03 2.08–6.50 | 8.40 4.79–12.00 3.84–12.96 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 12.36 8.43–16.28 7.34–17.37 | 13.22 9.65–16.78 8.69–17.74 | 25.57 18.09–33.06 16.04–35.11 | 39% 53% |
| Shots in box | 7.30 4.35–10.24 3.53–11.07 | 8.26 5.58–10.94 4.84–11.67 | 15.55 9.93–21.18 8.36–22.74 | 36% 55% |
| Blocked shots | 3.02 1.14–4.90 0.59–5.44 | 3.40 1.74–5.05 1.25–5.54 | 6.42 2.88–9.95 1.85–10.99 | 36% 16% 48% |
| Corners | 4.69 2.48–6.91 1.91–7.48 | 4.88 2.88–6.88 2.35–7.41 | 9.57 5.36–13.78 4.25–14.89 | 41% 13% 46% |
| Possession % | 49.62 42.83–56.41 41.16–58.08 | 49.86 43.07–56.64 41.40–58.31 | — | 47% 48% |
| Passes | 444 377–511 358–529 | 434 367–500 350–518 | 877 744–1011 708–1047 | 53% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.33 66.30–74.36 65.01–75.65 | 71.46 67.13–75.78 65.82–77.09 | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 12.00 9.17–14.84 8.41–15.60 | 12.56 9.61–15.50 8.87–16.25 | 24.56 18.78–30.34 17.28–31.85 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.02 0.86–3.18 0.56–3.48 | 1.33 0.24–2.42 0.00–2.71 | 3.35 1.10–5.60 0.51–6.19 | 53% 22% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.94–3.04 0.68–3.31 | 2.37 1.24–3.50 0.95–3.79 | 4.37 2.19–6.55 1.63–7.10 | 33% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.62–4.49 1.23–4.88 | 2.73 1.17–4.28 0.75–4.71 | 5.78 2.79–8.77 1.98–9.59 | 47% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.