Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 25·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.122.62safe0.54–2.470.26–1.970.80–4.44safer0.29–2.720.03–2.200.32–4.92
Shots on target
64%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.053.488.53safe3.18–6.911.74–5.224.92–12.13safer2.69–7.401.27–5.693.97–13.09
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0910.5125.61safe11.17–19.026.95–14.0818.12–33.09safer10.08–20.115.99–15.0416.07–35.14
Shots in box
80%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction10.026.1016.12safe7.08–12.963.42–8.7810.50–21.74safer6.25–13.792.68–9.528.93–23.31
Blocked shots
60%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.172.987.16safe2.29–6.061.33–4.643.62–10.69safer1.75–6.600.84–5.132.59–11.73
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.424.109.53safe3.21–7.642.10–6.105.31–13.74safer2.64–8.211.57–6.644.21–14.85
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction51.2849.25safe44.49–58.0742.46–56.03safer42.82–59.7440.79–57.70
Passes
59%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction457430886safe389–524363–496752–1020safer371–542346–514717–1055
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction70.1171.85safe66.08–74.1467.53–76.17safer64.78–75.4366.22–77.48
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6012.7825.38safe9.76–15.449.83–15.7219.59–31.16safer9.01–16.199.08–16.4718.09–32.66
Offsides
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.983.48safe0.34–2.660.89–3.071.22–5.73safer0.04–2.960.60–3.360.63–6.32
Yellow cards
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.853.79safe0.89–2.990.72–2.981.61–5.97safer0.63–3.260.43–3.271.05–6.52
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.120.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.85
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.513.375.88safe1.07–3.941.81–4.932.89–8.87safer0.68–4.331.39–5.352.07–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.54–2.47 0.29–2.72 | 1.12 0.26–1.97 0.03–2.20 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.32–4.92 | 46% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.05 3.18–6.91 2.69–7.40 | 3.48 1.74–5.22 1.27–5.69 | 8.53 4.92–12.13 3.97–13.09 | 64% 24% |
| Total shots | 15.09 11.17–19.02 10.08–20.11 | 10.51 6.95–14.08 5.99–15.04 | 25.61 18.12–33.09 16.07–35.14 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.02 7.08–12.96 6.25–13.79 | 6.10 3.42–8.78 2.68–9.52 | 16.12 10.50–21.74 8.93–23.31 | 80% 13% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.29–6.06 1.75–6.60 | 2.98 1.33–4.64 0.84–5.13 | 7.16 3.62–10.69 2.59–11.73 | 60% 14% 26% |
| Corners | 5.42 3.21–7.64 2.64–8.21 | 4.10 2.10–6.10 1.57–6.64 | 9.53 5.31–13.74 4.21–14.85 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 51.28 44.49–58.07 42.82–59.74 | 49.25 42.46–56.03 40.79–57.70 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 457 389–524 371–542 | 430 363–496 346–514 | 886 752–1020 717–1055 | 59% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.11 66.08–74.14 64.78–75.43 | 71.85 67.53–76.17 66.22–77.48 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 12.60 9.76–15.44 9.01–16.19 | 12.78 9.83–15.72 9.08–16.47 | 25.38 19.59–31.16 18.09–32.66 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.34–2.66 0.04–2.96 | 1.98 0.89–3.07 0.60–3.36 | 3.48 1.22–5.73 0.63–6.32 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.89–2.99 0.63–3.26 | 1.85 0.72–2.98 0.43–3.27 | 3.79 1.61–5.97 1.05–6.52 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.51 1.07–3.94 0.68–4.33 | 3.37 1.81–4.93 1.39–5.35 | 5.88 2.89–8.87 2.07–9.68 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+