Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 8·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.510.843.35safe1.55–3.480.00–1.691.53–5.18safer1.29–3.730.00–1.921.05–5.66
Shots on target
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.823.2610.08safe4.95–8.681.52–5.016.48–13.69safer4.46–9.171.06–5.475.52–14.64
Total shots
96%
homeawaytotalprediction19.209.4628.66safe15.27–23.125.90–13.0321.18–36.15safer14.18–24.224.94–13.9919.13–38.20
Shots in box
95%
homeawaytotalprediction13.325.8219.15safe10.38–16.273.14–8.5113.52–24.77safer9.55–17.092.41–9.2411.96–26.34
Blocked shots
76%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction4.892.467.35safe3.01–6.780.81–4.113.82–10.89safer2.47–7.320.32–4.612.78–11.93
Corners
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.993.7410.74safe4.78–9.211.74–5.746.52–14.95safer4.20–9.781.21–6.285.42–16.06
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction60.4539.60safe53.66–67.2432.81–46.38safer51.99–68.9131.14–48.05
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction570363933safe503–637297–430800–1067safer485–655279–447764–1103
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction80.2671.69safe76.24–84.2967.36–76.01safer74.94–85.5966.05–77.32
Fouls
84%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6015.1024.70safe6.77–12.4412.16–18.0418.92–30.49safer6.01–13.2011.41–18.7917.42–31.99
Offsides
58%
20%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.191.283.47safe1.03–3.350.19–2.371.22–5.73safer0.73–3.660.00–2.660.63–6.32
Yellow cards
16%
15%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction1.442.974.41safe0.39–2.491.84–4.102.23–6.59safer0.12–2.751.55–4.391.68–7.15
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.130.20safe0.00–0.230.00–0.320.00–0.54safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.83
GK saves
18%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction2.404.236.63safe0.97–3.842.67–5.793.64–9.62safer0.58–4.232.25–6.212.83–10.44
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.51 1.55–3.48 1.29–3.73 | 0.84 0.00–1.69 0.00–1.92 | 3.35 1.53–5.18 1.05–5.66 | 74% 16% |
| Shots on target | 6.82 4.95–8.68 4.46–9.17 | 3.26 1.52–5.01 1.06–5.47 | 10.08 6.48–13.69 5.52–14.64 | 83% |
| Total shots | 19.20 15.27–23.12 14.18–24.22 | 9.46 5.90–13.03 4.94–13.99 | 28.66 21.18–36.15 19.13–38.20 | 96% |
| Shots in box | 13.32 10.38–16.27 9.55–17.09 | 5.82 3.14–8.51 2.41–9.24 | 19.15 13.52–24.77 11.96–26.34 | 95% |
| Blocked shots | 4.89 3.01–6.78 2.47–7.32 | 2.46 0.81–4.11 0.32–4.61 | 7.35 3.82–10.89 2.78–11.93 | 76% 13% |
| Corners | 6.99 4.78–9.21 4.20–9.78 | 3.74 1.74–5.74 1.21–6.28 | 10.74 6.52–14.95 5.42–16.06 | 80% |
| Possession % | 60.45 53.66–67.24 51.99–68.91 | 39.60 32.81–46.38 31.14–48.05 | — | 88% |
| Passes | 570 503–637 485–655 | 363 297–430 279–447 | 933 800–1067 764–1103 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.26 76.24–84.29 74.94–85.59 | 71.69 67.36–76.01 66.05–77.32 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 9.60 6.77–12.44 6.01–13.20 | 15.10 12.16–18.04 11.41–18.79 | 24.70 18.92–30.49 17.42–31.99 | 84% |
| Offsides | 2.19 1.03–3.35 0.73–3.66 | 1.28 0.19–2.37 0.00–2.66 | 3.47 1.22–5.73 0.63–6.32 | 58% 20% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.44 0.39–2.49 0.12–2.75 | 2.97 1.84–4.10 1.55–4.39 | 4.41 2.23–6.59 1.68–7.15 | 16% 15% 69% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.40 0.97–3.84 0.58–4.23 | 4.23 2.67–5.79 2.25–6.21 | 6.63 3.64–9.62 2.83–10.44 | 18% 70% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+