Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 25·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
21%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.062.043.10safe0.10–2.031.18–2.891.28–4.92safer0.00–2.280.95–3.120.80–5.40
Shots on target
21%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.985.959.93safe2.12–5.844.21–7.696.33–13.54safer1.63–6.333.74–8.165.37–14.49
Total shots
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9414.4227.36safe9.01–16.8610.86–17.9819.87–34.84safer7.92–17.959.90–18.9417.82–36.90
Shots in box
19%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction7.1810.3717.55safe4.24–10.127.69–13.0511.93–23.17safer3.41–10.956.95–13.7910.36–24.74
Blocked shots
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.654.087.72safe1.77–5.532.42–5.734.19–11.26safer1.22–6.071.93–6.223.15–12.30
Corners
33%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.305.129.42safe2.09–6.523.12–7.125.21–13.64safer1.52–7.092.58–7.654.10–14.74
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction42.1558.65safe35.36–48.9451.87–65.44safer33.69–50.6150.19–67.11
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction370516886safe303–438449–582752–1020safer285–456432–600717–1055
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction69.4279.76safe65.39–73.4575.43–84.08safer64.10–74.7474.12–85.39
Fouls
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7511.2527.01safe12.92–18.598.31–14.2021.23–32.79safer12.16–19.357.56–14.9519.72–34.29
Offsides
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.943.37safe0.27–2.590.85–3.031.11–5.62safer0.00–2.890.56–3.320.52–6.21
Yellow cards
51%
19%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.461.864.32safe1.41–3.510.73–2.992.15–6.50safer1.14–3.780.44–3.281.59–7.06
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.110.24safe0.00–0.290.00–0.290.00–0.59safer0.00–0.440.00–0.430.00–0.87
GK saves
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.702.806.50safe2.26–5.131.25–4.363.51–9.49safer1.87–5.520.82–4.782.70–10.31
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.06 0.10–2.03 0.00–2.28 | 2.04 1.18–2.89 0.95–3.12 | 3.10 1.28–4.92 0.80–5.40 | 19% 21% 60% |
| Shots on target | 3.98 2.12–5.84 1.63–6.33 | 5.95 4.21–7.69 3.74–8.16 | 9.93 6.33–13.54 5.37–14.49 | 21% 68% |
| Total shots | 12.94 9.01–16.86 7.92–17.95 | 14.42 10.86–17.98 9.90–18.94 | 27.36 19.87–34.84 17.82–36.90 | 35% 57% |
| Shots in box | 7.18 4.24–10.12 3.41–10.95 | 10.37 7.69–13.05 6.95–13.79 | 17.55 11.93–23.17 10.36–24.74 | 19% 74% |
| Blocked shots | 3.65 1.77–5.53 1.22–6.07 | 4.08 2.42–5.73 1.93–6.22 | 7.72 4.19–11.26 3.15–12.30 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Corners | 4.30 2.09–6.52 1.52–7.09 | 5.12 3.12–7.12 2.58–7.65 | 9.42 5.21–13.64 4.10–14.74 | 33% 54% |
| Possession % | 42.15 35.36–48.94 33.69–50.61 | 58.65 51.87–65.44 50.19–67.11 | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 370 303–438 285–456 | 516 449–582 432–600 | 886 752–1020 717–1055 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.42 65.39–73.45 64.10–74.74 | 79.76 75.43–84.08 74.12–85.39 | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 15.75 12.92–18.59 12.16–19.35 | 11.25 8.31–14.20 7.56–14.95 | 27.01 21.23–32.79 19.72–34.29 | 78% 17% |
| Offsides | 1.43 0.27–2.59 0.00–2.89 | 1.94 0.85–3.03 0.56–3.32 | 3.37 1.11–5.62 0.52–6.21 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 2.46 1.41–3.51 1.14–3.78 | 1.86 0.73–2.99 0.44–3.28 | 4.32 2.15–6.50 1.59–7.06 | 51% 19% 29% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.70 2.26–5.13 1.87–5.52 | 2.80 1.25–4.36 0.82–4.78 | 6.50 3.51–9.49 2.70–10.31 | 56% 15% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+