Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 8·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
18%
22%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction0.911.852.76safe0.00–1.880.99–2.700.93–4.58safer0.00–2.130.76–2.930.46–5.06
Shots on target
17%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction3.225.498.71safe1.36–5.083.75–7.235.10–12.31safer0.87–5.573.28–7.704.15–13.27
Total shots
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0714.0624.13safe6.14–13.9910.50–17.6216.64–31.62safer5.05–15.099.54–18.5814.59–33.67
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction5.739.7115.45safe2.79–8.687.03–12.409.82–21.07safer1.96–9.506.30–13.138.26–22.64
Blocked shots
22%
13%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.694.176.87safe0.81–4.572.52–5.833.33–10.40safer0.27–5.122.03–6.322.29–11.44
Corners
29%
13%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.574.678.24safe1.35–5.782.67–6.674.02–12.45safer0.78–6.362.14–7.202.92–13.56
Possession %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction43.9757.08safe37.18–50.7650.29–63.86safer35.51–52.4348.62–65.54
Passes
16%
84%
homeawaytotalprediction435556991safe368–503489–622858–1125safer350–521472–640822–1161
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction72.1781.42safe68.14–76.2077.10–85.75safer66.85–77.4975.79–87.06
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9312.2625.19safe10.09–15.779.32–15.2119.41–30.97safer9.34–16.528.57–15.9517.90–32.48
Offsides
37%
24%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.553.07safe0.36–2.680.46–2.650.82–5.32safer0.06–2.980.17–2.930.23–5.91
Yellow cards
54%
17%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.962.235.19safe1.91–4.011.10–3.363.01–7.37safer1.64–4.270.81–3.652.46–7.93
Red cards
17%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction0.210.110.33safe0.05–0.380.00–0.300.00–0.67safer0.00–0.530.00–0.430.00–0.96
GK saves
56%
16%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.272.405.67safe1.83–4.710.85–3.962.68–8.67safer1.45–5.090.42–4.381.87–9.48
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.91 0.00–1.88 0.00–2.13 | 1.85 0.99–2.70 0.76–2.93 | 2.76 0.93–4.58 0.46–5.06 | 18% 22% 59% |
| Shots on target | 3.22 1.36–5.08 0.87–5.57 | 5.49 3.75–7.23 3.28–7.70 | 8.71 5.10–12.31 4.15–13.27 | 17% 73% |
| Total shots | 10.07 6.14–13.99 5.05–15.09 | 14.06 10.50–17.62 9.54–18.58 | 24.13 16.64–31.62 14.59–33.67 | 18% 76% |
| Shots in box | 5.73 2.79–8.68 1.96–9.50 | 9.71 7.03–12.40 6.30–13.13 | 15.45 9.82–21.07 8.26–22.64 | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 2.69 0.81–4.57 0.27–5.12 | 4.17 2.52–5.83 2.03–6.32 | 6.87 3.33–10.40 2.29–11.44 | 22% 13% 64% |
| Corners | 3.57 1.35–5.78 0.78–6.36 | 4.67 2.67–6.67 2.14–7.20 | 8.24 4.02–12.45 2.92–13.56 | 29% 13% 58% |
| Possession % | 43.97 37.18–50.76 35.51–52.43 | 57.08 50.29–63.86 48.62–65.54 | — | 20% 76% |
| Passes | 435 368–503 350–521 | 556 489–622 472–640 | 991 858–1125 822–1161 | 16% 84% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.17 68.14–76.20 66.85–77.49 | 81.42 77.10–85.75 75.79–87.06 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 12.93 10.09–15.77 9.34–16.52 | 12.26 9.32–15.21 8.57–15.95 | 25.19 19.41–30.97 17.90–32.48 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.36–2.68 0.06–2.98 | 1.55 0.46–2.65 0.17–2.93 | 3.07 0.82–5.32 0.23–5.91 | 37% 24% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.96 1.91–4.01 1.64–4.27 | 2.23 1.10–3.36 0.81–3.65 | 5.19 3.01–7.37 2.46–7.93 | 54% 17% 29% |
| Red cards | 0.21 0.05–0.38 0.00–0.53 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.33 0.00–0.67 0.00–0.96 | 17% 74% |
| GK saves | 3.27 1.83–4.71 1.45–5.09 | 2.40 0.85–3.96 0.42–4.38 | 5.67 2.68–8.67 1.87–9.48 | 56% 16% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.