Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 25·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
65%
20%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.060.862.92safe1.09–3.030.00–1.711.09–4.74safer0.84–3.280.00–1.940.61–5.22
Shots on target
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.002.898.89safe4.14–7.871.14–4.635.29–12.50safer3.65–8.360.68–5.094.33–13.45
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction16.678.1124.78safe12.74–20.594.55–11.6717.29–32.26safer11.65–21.683.59–12.6315.24–34.31
Shots in box
92%
homeawaytotalprediction10.684.8615.53safe7.74–13.622.18–7.549.91–21.16safer6.91–14.451.44–8.278.34–22.72
Blocked shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction4.621.856.47safe2.74–6.500.20–3.502.93–10.00safer2.19–7.040.00–4.001.90–11.04
Corners
84%
homeawaytotalprediction6.402.909.29safe4.18–8.610.90–4.905.08–13.51safer3.61–9.190.36–5.433.97–14.62
Possession %
79%
18%
homeawayprediction56.7142.29safe49.92–63.5035.51–49.08safer48.25–65.1733.83–50.75
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction554434987safe486–621367–500853–1121safer468–639350–518818–1157
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction80.9675.25safe76.93–84.9970.92–79.57safer75.64–86.2869.61–80.88
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9713.8725.84safe9.13–14.8110.92–16.8120.06–31.62safer8.38–15.5710.18–17.5618.55–33.13
Offsides
48%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.403.23safe0.67–2.990.31–2.490.98–5.48safer0.37–3.290.02–2.780.39–6.07
Yellow cards
22%
17%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.874.62safe0.70–2.801.74–4.002.45–6.80safer0.44–3.071.45–4.291.89–7.36
Red cards
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.160.24safe0.00–0.240.00–0.340.00–0.58safer0.00–0.390.00–0.480.00–0.87
GK saves
17%
13%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction2.033.845.87safe0.60–3.472.28–5.402.88–8.87safer0.21–3.861.86–5.822.07–9.68
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.06 1.09–3.03 0.84–3.28 | 0.86 0.00–1.71 0.00–1.94 | 2.92 1.09–4.74 0.61–5.22 | 65% 20% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.00 4.14–7.87 3.65–8.36 | 2.89 1.14–4.63 0.68–5.09 | 8.89 5.29–12.50 4.33–13.45 | 81% |
| Total shots | 16.67 12.74–20.59 11.65–21.68 | 8.11 4.55–11.67 3.59–12.63 | 24.78 17.29–32.26 15.24–34.31 | 95% |
| Shots in box | 10.68 7.74–13.62 6.91–14.45 | 4.86 2.18–7.54 1.44–8.27 | 15.53 9.91–21.16 8.34–22.72 | 92% |
| Blocked shots | 4.62 2.74–6.50 2.19–7.04 | 1.85 0.20–3.50 0.00–4.00 | 6.47 2.93–10.00 1.90–11.04 | 82% |
| Corners | 6.40 4.18–8.61 3.61–9.19 | 2.90 0.90–4.90 0.36–5.43 | 9.29 5.08–13.51 3.97–14.62 | 84% |
| Possession % | 56.71 49.92–63.50 48.25–65.17 | 42.29 35.51–49.08 33.83–50.75 | — | 79% 18% |
| Passes | 554 486–621 468–639 | 434 367–500 350–518 | 987 853–1121 818–1157 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.96 76.93–84.99 75.64–86.28 | 75.25 70.92–79.57 69.61–80.88 | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 11.97 9.13–14.81 8.38–15.57 | 13.87 10.92–16.81 10.18–17.56 | 25.84 20.06–31.62 18.55–33.13 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 1.40 0.31–2.49 0.02–2.78 | 3.23 0.98–5.48 0.39–6.07 | 48% 23% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.80 0.44–3.07 | 2.87 1.74–4.00 1.45–4.29 | 4.62 2.45–6.80 1.89–7.36 | 22% 17% 61% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.48 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.87 | 80% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.03 0.60–3.47 0.21–3.86 | 3.84 2.28–5.40 1.86–5.82 | 5.87 2.88–8.87 2.07–9.68 | 17% 13% 70% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+