Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 8·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
27%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.322.56safe0.27–2.200.46–2.170.73–4.38safer0.02–2.460.24–2.400.25–4.86
Shots on target
42%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.224.338.55safe2.36–6.082.59–6.074.95–12.16safer1.87–6.572.12–6.543.99–13.11
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7513.2527.00safe9.83–17.689.68–16.8119.51–34.49safer8.74–18.778.73–17.7717.46–36.54
Shots in box
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction8.218.6916.90safe5.27–11.166.01–11.3711.28–22.52safer4.44–11.995.27–12.119.71–24.09
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.453.366.81safe1.56–5.331.71–5.013.27–10.34safer1.02–5.871.22–5.512.24–11.38
Corners
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.395.3510.74safe3.18–7.603.35–7.356.52–14.95safer2.60–8.182.81–7.885.42–16.06
Possession %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction46.7053.92safe39.91–53.4947.14–60.71safer38.24–55.1645.47–62.38
Passes
27%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction347420768safe280–415354–487634–901safer262–433336–504598–937
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction64.2670.32safe60.23–68.2965.99–74.64safer58.94–69.5864.68–75.95
Fouls
44%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5614.9229.47safe11.72–17.4011.97–17.8623.69–35.26safer10.96–18.1511.22–18.6122.19–36.76
Offsides
48%
23%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.383.18safe0.64–2.960.28–2.470.93–5.43safer0.34–3.260.00–2.760.34–6.02
Yellow cards
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.362.404.75safe1.31–3.411.27–3.532.57–6.93safer1.04–3.670.98–3.822.02–7.49
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.120.24safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.87
GK saves
45%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.082.895.97safe1.65–4.521.33–4.452.98–8.96safer1.26–4.910.91–4.872.17–9.78
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.20 0.02–2.46 | 1.32 0.46–2.17 0.24–2.40 | 2.56 0.73–4.38 0.25–4.86 | 35% 27% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.22 2.36–6.08 1.87–6.57 | 4.33 2.59–6.07 2.12–6.54 | 8.55 4.95–12.16 3.99–13.11 | 42% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 13.75 9.83–17.68 8.74–18.77 | 13.25 9.68–16.81 8.73–17.77 | 27.00 19.51–34.49 17.46–36.54 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.21 5.27–11.16 4.44–11.99 | 8.69 6.01–11.37 5.27–12.11 | 16.90 11.28–22.52 9.71–24.09 | 41% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.45 1.56–5.33 1.02–5.87 | 3.36 1.71–5.01 1.22–5.51 | 6.81 3.27–10.34 2.24–11.38 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 5.39 3.18–7.60 2.60–8.18 | 5.35 3.35–7.35 2.81–7.88 | 10.74 6.52–14.95 5.42–16.06 | 44% 43% |
| Possession % | 46.70 39.91–53.49 38.24–55.16 | 53.92 47.14–60.71 45.47–62.38 | — | 31% 64% |
| Passes | 347 280–415 262–433 | 420 354–487 336–504 | 768 634–901 598–937 | 27% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.26 60.23–68.29 58.94–69.58 | 70.32 65.99–74.64 64.68–75.95 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 14.56 11.72–17.40 10.96–18.15 | 14.92 11.97–17.86 11.22–18.61 | 29.47 23.69–35.26 22.19–36.76 | 44% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.64–2.96 0.34–3.26 | 1.38 0.28–2.47 0.00–2.76 | 3.18 0.93–5.43 0.34–6.02 | 48% 23% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 2.36 1.31–3.41 1.04–3.67 | 2.40 1.27–3.53 0.98–3.82 | 4.75 2.57–6.93 2.02–7.49 | 40% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.65–4.52 1.26–4.91 | 2.89 1.33–4.45 0.91–4.87 | 5.97 2.98–8.96 2.17–9.78 | 45% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.