Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 25·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
26%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.032.55safe0.55–2.490.17–1.880.73–4.37safer0.30–2.740.00–2.110.25–4.85
Shots on target
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.933.258.18safe3.07–6.791.51–4.994.57–11.78safer2.58–7.281.04–5.463.62–12.74
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9511.0425.99safe11.03–18.887.48–14.6018.50–33.48safer9.94–19.976.52–15.5616.45–35.53
Shots in box
75%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction9.726.5016.21safe6.77–12.663.81–9.1810.59–21.83safer5.94–13.493.08–9.919.02–23.40
Blocked shots
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.322.486.80safe2.44–6.200.83–4.133.26–10.33safer1.89–6.740.33–4.622.23–11.37
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction6.004.1010.10safe3.79–8.222.10–6.105.89–14.32safer3.22–8.791.57–6.634.78–15.43
Possession %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction56.1743.03safe49.38–62.9636.24–49.81safer47.71–64.6334.57–51.49
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction456315771safe388–523249–382637–905safer370–541231–399602–940
Pass accuracy %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction71.2067.83safe67.17–75.2363.51–72.16safer65.88–76.5262.20–73.47
Fouls
40%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0113.8426.84safe10.17–15.8510.89–16.7821.06–32.63safer9.41–16.6010.14–17.5319.56–34.13
Offsides
36%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.542.98safe0.28–2.600.45–2.630.73–5.23safer0.00–2.900.16–2.920.14–5.82
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.324.18safe0.81–2.901.19–3.452.00–6.35safer0.54–3.170.90–3.741.44–6.91
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84
GK saves
27%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.373.285.65safe0.94–3.811.72–4.832.66–8.64safer0.55–4.201.29–5.261.84–9.45
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.55–2.49 0.30–2.74 | 1.03 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 2.55 0.73–4.37 0.25–4.85 | 49% 26% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.93 3.07–6.79 2.58–7.28 | 3.25 1.51–4.99 1.04–5.46 | 8.18 4.57–11.78 3.62–12.74 | 66% 22% |
| Total shots | 14.95 11.03–18.88 9.94–19.97 | 11.04 7.48–14.60 6.52–15.56 | 25.99 18.50–33.48 16.45–35.53 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 9.72 6.77–12.66 5.94–13.49 | 6.50 3.81–9.18 3.08–9.91 | 16.21 10.59–21.83 9.02–23.40 | 75% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 2.44–6.20 1.89–6.74 | 2.48 0.83–4.13 0.33–4.62 | 6.80 3.26–10.33 2.23–11.37 | 70% 18% |
| Corners | 6.00 3.79–8.22 3.22–8.79 | 4.10 2.10–6.10 1.57–6.63 | 10.10 5.89–14.32 4.78–15.43 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 56.17 49.38–62.96 47.71–64.63 | 43.03 36.24–49.81 34.57–51.49 | — | 76% 20% |
| Passes | 456 388–523 370–541 | 315 249–382 231–399 | 771 637–905 602–940 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.20 67.17–75.23 65.88–76.52 | 67.83 63.51–72.16 62.20–73.47 | — | 64% 31% |
| Fouls | 13.01 10.17–15.85 9.41–16.60 | 13.84 10.89–16.78 10.14–17.53 | 26.84 21.06–32.63 19.56–34.13 | 40% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.28–2.60 0.00–2.90 | 1.54 0.45–2.63 0.16–2.92 | 2.98 0.73–5.23 0.14–5.82 | 36% 24% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.81–2.90 0.54–3.17 | 2.32 1.19–3.45 0.90–3.74 | 4.18 2.00–6.35 1.44–6.91 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.37 0.94–3.81 0.55–4.20 | 3.28 1.72–4.83 1.29–5.26 | 5.65 2.66–8.64 1.84–9.45 | 27% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+