Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 8·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 8·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
26%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.492.60safe0.14–2.070.63–2.340.77–4.42safer0.00–2.330.41–2.570.29–4.90
Shots on target
31%
14%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction3.614.528.13safe1.75–5.482.78–6.264.53–11.74safer1.26–5.972.31–6.733.57–12.69
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4212.0624.48safe8.50–16.358.50–15.6217.00–31.97safer7.41–17.447.54–16.5814.94–34.02
Shots in box
38%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction7.298.0215.31safe4.35–10.235.34–10.709.69–20.93safer3.52–11.064.60–11.448.12–22.50
Blocked shots
49%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.262.786.05safe1.38–5.141.13–4.442.51–9.58safer0.84–5.690.64–4.931.48–10.62
Corners
44%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.714.629.33safe2.49–6.922.62–6.625.12–13.54safer1.92–7.492.09–7.164.01–14.65
Possession %
23%
74%
homeawayprediction44.2756.00safe37.48–51.0649.21–62.78safer35.81–52.7347.54–64.46
Passes
23%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction384473857safe317–451406–539723–990safer299–470389–556687–1026
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction66.0173.68safe61.98–70.0469.35–78.00safer60.69–71.3468.04–79.31
Fouls
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8514.3128.16safe11.01–16.6911.37–17.2622.38–33.95safer10.26–17.4410.62–18.0120.88–35.45
Offsides
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.033.49safe0.29–2.610.94–3.131.23–5.74safer0.00–2.910.65–3.410.64–6.33
Yellow cards
39%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.372.454.83safe1.32–3.421.32–3.582.65–7.00safer1.06–3.691.03–3.872.09–7.56
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
48%
18%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.782.405.18safe1.34–4.220.84–3.952.19–8.17safer0.96–4.600.42–4.381.37–8.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.14–2.07 0.00–2.33 | 1.49 0.63–2.34 0.41–2.57 | 2.60 0.77–4.42 0.29–4.90 | 28% 26% 46% |
| Shots on target | 3.61 1.75–5.48 1.26–5.97 | 4.52 2.78–6.26 2.31–6.73 | 8.13 4.53–11.74 3.57–12.69 | 31% 14% 56% |
| Total shots | 12.42 8.50–16.35 7.41–17.44 | 12.06 8.50–15.62 7.54–16.58 | 24.48 17.00–31.97 14.94–34.02 | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 7.29 4.35–10.23 3.52–11.06 | 8.02 5.34–10.70 4.60–11.44 | 15.31 9.69–20.93 8.12–22.50 | 38% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 3.26 1.38–5.14 0.84–5.69 | 2.78 1.13–4.44 0.64–4.93 | 6.05 2.51–9.58 1.48–10.62 | 49% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 4.71 2.49–6.92 1.92–7.49 | 4.62 2.62–6.62 2.09–7.16 | 9.33 5.12–13.54 4.01–14.65 | 44% 13% 42% |
| Possession % | 44.27 37.48–51.06 35.81–52.73 | 56.00 49.21–62.78 47.54–64.46 | — | 23% 74% |
| Passes | 384 317–451 299–470 | 473 406–539 389–556 | 857 723–990 687–1026 | 23% 77% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.01 61.98–70.04 60.69–71.34 | 73.68 69.35–78.00 68.04–79.31 | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 13.85 11.01–16.69 10.26–17.44 | 14.31 11.37–17.26 10.62–18.01 | 28.16 22.38–33.95 20.88–35.45 | 43% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.29–2.61 0.00–2.91 | 2.03 0.94–3.13 0.65–3.41 | 3.49 1.23–5.74 0.64–6.33 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 2.37 1.32–3.42 1.06–3.69 | 2.45 1.32–3.58 1.03–3.87 | 4.83 2.65–7.00 2.09–7.56 | 39% 19% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.34–4.22 0.96–4.60 | 2.40 0.84–3.95 0.42–4.38 | 5.18 2.19–8.17 1.37–8.98 | 48% 18% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.