Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 25·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 25·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
26%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.460.962.42safe0.49–2.430.11–1.810.60–4.25safer0.24–2.680.00–2.040.12–4.73
Shots on target
64%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.753.227.97safe2.89–6.611.48–4.964.37–11.58safer2.40–7.101.01–5.433.41–12.53
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1210.2324.35safe10.19–18.046.67–13.7916.86–31.83safer9.10–19.135.71–14.7514.81–33.88
Shots in box
72%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction9.366.4915.86safe6.42–12.303.81–9.1710.23–21.48safer5.59–13.133.08–9.918.67–23.05
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.792.896.68safe1.90–5.671.24–4.543.14–10.21safer1.36–6.210.75–5.042.11–11.25
Corners
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.463.779.23safe3.25–7.671.77–5.775.01–13.44safer2.67–8.251.23–6.303.91–14.55
Possession %
82%
15%
homeawayprediction58.7742.54safe51.98–65.5635.75–49.32safer50.31–67.2334.08–50.99
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction522369892safe455–590303–436758–1025safer437–608285–453722–1061
Pass accuracy %
62%
34%
homeawayprediction73.7470.94safe69.71–77.7766.62–75.27safer68.42–79.0665.31–76.58
Fouls
57%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0612.5926.64safe11.22–16.899.64–15.5320.86–32.43safer10.46–17.658.89–16.2819.36–33.93
Offsides
55%
21%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.021.243.26safe0.86–3.180.15–2.331.01–5.51safer0.56–3.480.00–2.620.42–6.10
Yellow cards
36%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.083.96safe0.82–2.920.95–3.211.78–6.13safer0.56–3.190.66–3.501.22–6.69
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
27%
17%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.163.065.22safe0.73–3.601.50–4.612.23–8.21safer0.34–3.991.08–5.041.42–9.03
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.49–2.43 0.24–2.68 | 0.96 0.11–1.81 0.00–2.04 | 2.42 0.60–4.25 0.12–4.73 | 49% 26% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.75 2.89–6.61 2.40–7.10 | 3.22 1.48–4.96 1.01–5.43 | 7.97 4.37–11.58 3.41–12.53 | 64% 23% |
| Total shots | 14.12 10.19–18.04 9.10–19.13 | 10.23 6.67–13.79 5.71–14.75 | 24.35 16.86–31.83 14.81–33.88 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 9.36 6.42–12.30 5.59–13.13 | 6.49 3.81–9.17 3.08–9.91 | 15.86 10.23–21.48 8.67–23.05 | 72% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 1.90–5.67 1.36–6.21 | 2.89 1.24–4.54 0.75–5.04 | 6.68 3.14–10.21 2.11–11.25 | 56% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 5.46 3.25–7.67 2.67–8.25 | 3.77 1.77–5.77 1.23–6.30 | 9.23 5.01–13.44 3.91–14.55 | 65% 23% |
| Possession % | 58.77 51.98–65.56 50.31–67.23 | 42.54 35.75–49.32 34.08–50.99 | — | 82% 15% |
| Passes | 522 455–590 437–608 | 369 303–436 285–453 | 892 758–1025 722–1061 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.74 69.71–77.77 68.42–79.06 | 70.94 66.62–75.27 65.31–76.58 | — | 62% 34% |
| Fouls | 14.06 11.22–16.89 10.46–17.65 | 12.59 9.64–15.53 8.89–16.28 | 26.64 20.86–32.43 19.36–33.93 | 57% 35% |
| Offsides | 2.02 0.86–3.18 0.56–3.48 | 1.24 0.15–2.33 0.00–2.62 | 3.26 1.01–5.51 0.42–6.10 | 55% 21% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.82–2.92 0.56–3.19 | 2.08 0.95–3.21 0.66–3.50 | 3.96 1.78–6.13 1.22–6.69 | 36% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.16 0.73–3.60 0.34–3.99 | 3.06 1.50–4.61 1.08–5.04 | 5.22 2.23–8.21 1.42–9.03 | 27% 17% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.