Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
28%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.142.31safe0.20–2.140.28–1.990.48–4.13safer0.00–2.390.05–2.220.00–4.61
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.184.028.19safe2.31–6.042.28–5.764.59–11.80safer1.82–6.531.81–6.233.63–12.76
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2511.9625.21safe9.33–17.188.40–15.5217.73–32.70safer8.24–18.277.44–16.4815.68–34.75
Shots in box
55%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction8.387.3315.72safe5.44–11.334.65–10.0110.09–21.34safer4.61–12.163.91–10.758.53–22.91
Blocked shots
44%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.513.416.92safe1.63–5.391.75–5.063.38–10.45safer1.08–5.931.26–5.552.35–11.49
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.234.609.83safe3.02–7.442.60–6.605.62–14.04safer2.44–8.022.07–7.134.51–15.15
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction44.9054.79safe38.11–51.6948.01–61.58safer36.44–53.3646.34–63.25
Passes
20%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction390492882safe323–457425–558748–1016safer305–475408–576713–1051
Pass accuracy %
16%
80%
homeawayprediction67.8875.04safe63.85–71.9170.72–79.36safer62.56–73.2069.41–80.67
Fouls
53%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8112.9526.76safe10.97–16.6410.01–15.9020.98–32.54safer10.21–17.409.26–16.6519.47–34.05
Offsides
46%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.503.33safe0.67–2.990.41–2.591.08–5.59safer0.37–3.290.12–2.880.49–6.18
Yellow cards
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.262.294.55safe1.21–3.311.16–3.422.37–6.73safer0.95–3.580.87–3.711.81–7.28
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.110.22safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.430.00–0.85
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.693.025.71safe1.25–4.131.46–4.572.71–8.70safer0.87–4.511.04–5.001.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.20–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.05–2.22 | 2.31 0.48–4.13 0.00–4.61 | 37% 28% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.18 2.31–6.04 1.82–6.53 | 4.02 2.28–5.76 1.81–6.23 | 8.19 4.59–11.80 3.63–12.76 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 13.25 9.33–17.18 8.24–18.27 | 11.96 8.40–15.52 7.44–16.48 | 25.21 17.73–32.70 15.68–34.75 | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 8.38 5.44–11.33 4.61–12.16 | 7.33 4.65–10.01 3.91–10.75 | 15.72 10.09–21.34 8.53–22.91 | 55% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 1.63–5.39 1.08–5.93 | 3.41 1.75–5.06 1.26–5.55 | 6.92 3.38–10.45 2.35–11.49 | 44% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 5.23 3.02–7.44 2.44–8.02 | 4.60 2.60–6.60 2.07–7.13 | 9.83 5.62–14.04 4.51–15.15 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 44.90 38.11–51.69 36.44–53.36 | 54.79 48.01–61.58 46.34–63.25 | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 390 323–457 305–475 | 492 425–558 408–576 | 882 748–1016 713–1051 | 20% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.88 63.85–71.91 62.56–73.20 | 75.04 70.72–79.36 69.41–80.67 | — | 16% 80% |
| Fouls | 13.81 10.97–16.64 10.21–17.40 | 12.95 10.01–15.90 9.26–16.65 | 26.76 20.98–32.54 19.47–34.05 | 53% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 1.50 0.41–2.59 0.12–2.88 | 3.33 1.08–5.59 0.49–6.18 | 46% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 2.26 1.21–3.31 0.95–3.58 | 2.29 1.16–3.42 0.87–3.71 | 4.55 2.37–6.73 1.81–7.28 | 40% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.69 1.25–4.13 0.87–4.51 | 3.02 1.46–4.57 1.04–5.00 | 5.71 2.71–8.70 1.90–9.51 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.