Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 9·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
27%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.052.45safe0.43–2.370.19–1.900.62–4.27safer0.18–2.620.00–2.130.14–4.75
Shots on target
64%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.853.288.13safe2.98–6.711.54–5.034.52–11.73safer2.49–7.201.08–5.493.57–12.69
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0710.0824.15safe10.15–18.006.52–13.6416.67–31.64safer9.06–19.095.56–14.6014.62–33.69
Shots in box
71%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction9.546.8016.33safe6.59–12.484.12–9.4810.71–21.96safer5.77–13.313.38–10.229.14–23.52
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.902.636.54safe2.02–5.790.98–4.293.00–10.07safer1.48–6.330.49–4.781.97–11.11
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.404.219.61safe3.19–7.612.21–6.215.40–13.82safer2.61–8.191.68–6.744.29–14.93
Possession %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction57.4643.67safe50.67–64.2536.89–50.46safer49.00–65.9235.22–52.13
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction491371862safe424–559304–437728–996safer406–577287–455693–1031
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction70.7969.35safe66.76–74.8265.02–73.67safer65.46–76.1163.71–74.98
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5713.1826.75safe10.73–16.4110.24–16.1320.97–32.54safer9.98–17.179.49–16.8719.47–34.04
Offsides
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.931.863.80safe0.77–3.090.77–2.961.54–6.05safer0.47–3.400.48–3.250.95–6.64
Yellow cards
39%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.122.204.33safe1.07–3.171.07–3.332.15–6.50safer0.81–3.440.78–3.621.59–7.06
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.120.22safe0.00–0.260.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.440.00–0.85
GK saves
25%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.333.395.72safe0.90–3.771.83–4.942.73–8.71safer0.51–4.161.41–5.371.92–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.05 0.19–1.90 0.00–2.13 | 2.45 0.62–4.27 0.14–4.75 | 45% 27% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 2.98–6.71 2.49–7.20 | 3.28 1.54–5.03 1.08–5.49 | 8.13 4.52–11.73 3.57–12.69 | 64% 23% |
| Total shots | 14.07 10.15–18.00 9.06–19.09 | 10.08 6.52–13.64 5.56–14.60 | 24.15 16.67–31.64 14.62–33.69 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 9.54 6.59–12.48 5.77–13.31 | 6.80 4.12–9.48 3.38–10.22 | 16.33 10.71–21.96 9.14–23.52 | 71% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 3.90 2.02–5.79 1.48–6.33 | 2.63 0.98–4.29 0.49–4.78 | 6.54 3.00–10.07 1.97–11.11 | 62% 14% 24% |
| Corners | 5.40 3.19–7.61 2.61–8.19 | 4.21 2.21–6.21 1.68–6.74 | 9.61 5.40–13.82 4.29–14.93 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 57.46 50.67–64.25 49.00–65.92 | 43.67 36.89–50.46 35.22–52.13 | — | 78% 19% |
| Passes | 491 424–559 406–577 | 371 304–437 287–455 | 862 728–996 693–1031 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.79 66.76–74.82 65.46–76.11 | 69.35 65.02–73.67 63.71–74.98 | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 13.57 10.73–16.41 9.98–17.17 | 13.18 10.24–16.13 9.49–16.87 | 26.75 20.97–32.54 19.47–34.04 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.93 0.77–3.09 0.47–3.40 | 1.86 0.77–2.96 0.48–3.25 | 3.80 1.54–6.05 0.95–6.64 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.12 1.07–3.17 0.81–3.44 | 2.20 1.07–3.33 0.78–3.62 | 4.33 2.15–6.50 1.59–7.06 | 39% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.33 0.90–3.77 0.51–4.16 | 3.39 1.83–4.94 1.41–5.37 | 5.72 2.73–8.71 1.92–9.52 | 25% 16% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.