Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 26·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.402.59safe0.22–2.160.55–2.260.77–4.41safer0.00–2.410.32–2.480.29–4.89
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.084.388.45safe2.21–5.942.64–6.124.85–12.06safer1.72–6.432.17–6.593.89–13.01
Total shots
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2612.0624.32safe8.34–16.198.50–15.6316.84–31.81safer7.24–17.287.54–16.5814.79–33.86
Shots in box
40%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction7.598.0915.68safe4.65–10.535.40–10.7710.05–21.30safer3.82–11.364.67–11.508.49–22.87
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.153.086.23safe1.26–5.031.43–4.732.69–9.76safer0.72–5.570.94–5.231.66–10.80
Corners
40%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.594.869.45safe2.38–6.802.86–6.865.24–13.66safer1.80–7.382.33–7.394.13–14.77
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction45.5654.31safe38.77–52.3547.52–61.09safer37.10–54.0245.85–62.77
Passes
32%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction394450845safe327–462384–517711–978safer309–480366–534675–1014
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction66.2271.64safe62.19–70.2567.32–75.96safer60.89–71.5466.01–77.27
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9213.3126.24safe10.09–15.7610.37–16.2620.46–32.02safer9.33–16.529.62–17.0118.95–33.53
Offsides
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.903.78safe0.72–3.040.80–2.991.52–6.03safer0.42–3.340.52–3.280.93–6.62
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.192.254.45safe1.14–3.241.12–3.382.27–6.62safer0.88–3.510.83–3.671.71–7.18
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.872.665.53safe1.43–4.311.10–4.212.53–8.52safer1.05–4.690.67–4.641.72–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.22–2.16 0.00–2.41 | 1.40 0.55–2.26 0.32–2.48 | 2.59 0.77–4.41 0.29–4.89 | 32% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.08 2.21–5.94 1.72–6.43 | 4.38 2.64–6.12 2.17–6.59 | 8.45 4.85–12.06 3.89–13.01 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.26 8.34–16.19 7.24–17.28 | 12.06 8.50–15.63 7.54–16.58 | 24.32 16.84–31.81 14.79–33.86 | 48% 44% |
| Shots in box | 7.59 4.65–10.53 3.82–11.36 | 8.09 5.40–10.77 4.67–11.50 | 15.68 10.05–21.30 8.49–22.87 | 40% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.15 1.26–5.03 0.72–5.57 | 3.08 1.43–4.73 0.94–5.23 | 6.23 2.69–9.76 1.66–10.80 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 4.59 2.38–6.80 1.80–7.38 | 4.86 2.86–6.86 2.33–7.39 | 9.45 5.24–13.66 4.13–14.77 | 40% 13% 47% |
| Possession % | 45.56 38.77–52.35 37.10–54.02 | 54.31 47.52–61.09 45.85–62.77 | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 394 327–462 309–480 | 450 384–517 366–534 | 845 711–978 675–1014 | 32% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.22 62.19–70.25 60.89–71.54 | 71.64 67.32–75.96 66.01–77.27 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 12.92 10.09–15.76 9.33–16.52 | 13.31 10.37–16.26 9.62–17.01 | 26.24 20.46–32.02 18.95–33.53 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 1.90 0.80–2.99 0.52–3.28 | 3.78 1.52–6.03 0.93–6.62 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.19 1.14–3.24 0.88–3.51 | 2.25 1.12–3.38 0.83–3.67 | 4.45 2.27–6.62 1.71–7.18 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.43–4.31 1.05–4.69 | 2.66 1.10–4.21 0.67–4.64 | 5.53 2.53–8.52 1.72–9.33 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.