Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 9·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
23%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction0.881.752.63safe0.00–1.840.90–2.600.80–4.45safer0.00–2.100.67–2.830.32–4.93
Shots on target
24%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.384.868.24safe1.52–5.243.12–6.614.64–11.85safer1.03–5.732.66–7.073.68–12.80
Total shots
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0014.1425.14safe7.07–14.9210.58–17.7017.65–32.62safer5.98–16.019.62–18.6615.60–34.67
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction6.0510.0316.08safe3.11–8.997.35–12.7110.46–21.70safer2.28–9.826.61–13.458.89–23.27
Blocked shots
32%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.314.057.36safe1.43–5.192.39–5.703.82–10.89safer0.89–5.741.90–6.192.79–11.93
Corners
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.005.209.20safe1.79–6.223.20–7.204.99–13.41safer1.22–6.792.66–7.733.88–14.52
Possession %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction43.4957.07safe36.70–50.2850.29–63.86safer35.03–51.9548.62–65.53
Passes
18%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction394500894safe326–461434–567760–1028safer308–479416–584725–1063
Pass accuracy %
84%
homeawayprediction67.7476.06safe63.71–71.7771.74–80.38safer62.42–73.0770.43–81.69
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8712.7625.63safe10.03–15.719.81–15.7019.85–31.41safer9.28–16.479.07–16.4518.34–32.92
Offsides
31%
24%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.632.97safe0.17–2.490.54–2.730.71–5.22safer0.00–2.790.25–3.010.12–5.81
Yellow cards
49%
20%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction2.371.924.29safe1.32–3.420.80–3.052.12–6.47safer1.05–3.680.50–3.341.56–7.03
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.080.21safe0.00–0.290.00–0.270.00–0.56safer0.00–0.440.00–0.400.00–0.84
GK saves
57%
16%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.352.395.73safe1.91–4.780.83–3.942.74–8.72safer1.52–5.170.41–4.371.93–9.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.88 0.00–1.84 0.00–2.10 | 1.75 0.90–2.60 0.67–2.83 | 2.63 0.80–4.45 0.32–4.93 | 19% 23% 58% |
| Shots on target | 3.38 1.52–5.24 1.03–5.73 | 4.86 3.12–6.61 2.66–7.07 | 8.24 4.64–11.85 3.68–12.80 | 24% 63% |
| Total shots | 11.00 7.07–14.92 5.98–16.01 | 14.14 10.58–17.70 9.62–18.66 | 25.14 17.65–32.62 15.60–34.67 | 23% 70% |
| Shots in box | 6.05 3.11–8.99 2.28–9.82 | 10.03 7.35–12.71 6.61–13.45 | 16.08 10.46–21.70 8.89–23.27 | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 3.31 1.43–5.19 0.89–5.74 | 4.05 2.39–5.70 1.90–6.19 | 7.36 3.82–10.89 2.79–11.93 | 32% 14% 53% |
| Corners | 4.00 1.79–6.22 1.22–6.79 | 5.20 3.20–7.20 2.66–7.73 | 9.20 4.99–13.41 3.88–14.52 | 29% 59% |
| Possession % | 43.49 36.70–50.28 35.03–51.95 | 57.07 50.29–63.86 48.62–65.53 | — | 19% 77% |
| Passes | 394 326–461 308–479 | 500 434–567 416–584 | 894 760–1028 725–1063 | 18% 81% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.74 63.71–71.77 62.42–73.07 | 76.06 71.74–80.38 70.43–81.69 | — | 84% |
| Fouls | 12.87 10.03–15.71 9.28–16.47 | 12.76 9.81–15.70 9.07–16.45 | 25.63 19.85–31.41 18.34–32.92 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.33 0.17–2.49 0.00–2.79 | 1.63 0.54–2.73 0.25–3.01 | 2.97 0.71–5.22 0.12–5.81 | 31% 24% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 2.37 1.32–3.42 1.05–3.68 | 1.92 0.80–3.05 0.50–3.34 | 4.29 2.12–6.47 1.56–7.03 | 49% 20% 32% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.35 1.91–4.78 1.52–5.17 | 2.39 0.83–3.94 0.41–4.37 | 5.73 2.74–8.72 1.93–9.54 | 57% 16% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+