Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 26·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
67%
20%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.110.852.96safe1.15–3.080.00–1.701.14–4.78safer0.89–3.330.00–1.930.66–5.26
Shots on target
81%
homeawaytotalprediction5.952.918.86safe4.09–7.811.17–4.655.25–12.46safer3.60–8.300.70–5.124.30–13.42
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction19.138.4027.52safe15.20–23.054.83–11.9620.04–35.01safer14.11–24.143.88–12.9217.99–37.06
Shots in box
92%
homeawaytotalprediction12.025.6017.62safe9.08–14.962.92–8.2811.99–23.24safer8.25–15.792.18–9.0210.43–24.81
Blocked shots
80%
homeawaytotalprediction4.862.136.99safe2.98–6.740.48–3.793.46–10.53safer2.43–7.290.00–4.282.42–11.56
Corners
87%
homeawaytotalprediction6.963.009.96safe4.75–9.171.00–5.005.75–14.18safer4.17–9.750.47–5.544.64–15.29
Possession %
79%
18%
homeawayprediction57.1142.50safe50.32–63.9135.72–49.29safer48.65–65.5734.05–50.96
Passes
87%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction529395924safe462–596329–462790–1058safer443–614311–479755–1094
Pass accuracy %
67%
28%
homeawayprediction75.3371.41safe71.30–79.3667.08–75.73safer70.01–80.6565.77–77.04
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7913.5526.34safe9.95–15.6310.60–16.4920.56–32.12safer9.20–16.399.85–17.2419.05–33.63
Offsides
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.122.97safe0.68–3.000.03–2.220.71–5.22safer0.38–3.300.00–2.510.12–5.81
Yellow cards
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.502.273.77safe0.45–2.551.14–3.401.59–5.95safer0.19–2.820.85–3.691.03–6.51
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.130.19safe0.00–0.220.00–0.320.00–0.54safer0.00–0.370.00–0.450.00–0.82
GK saves
19%
14%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.003.575.57safe0.56–3.442.02–5.132.58–8.56safer0.18–3.821.59–5.551.77–9.38
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.11 1.15–3.08 0.89–3.33 | 0.85 0.00–1.70 0.00–1.93 | 2.96 1.14–4.78 0.66–5.26 | 67% 20% 14% |
| Shots on target | 5.95 4.09–7.81 3.60–8.30 | 2.91 1.17–4.65 0.70–5.12 | 8.86 5.25–12.46 4.30–13.42 | 81% |
| Total shots | 19.13 15.20–23.05 14.11–24.14 | 8.40 4.83–11.96 3.88–12.92 | 27.52 20.04–35.01 17.99–37.06 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 12.02 9.08–14.96 8.25–15.79 | 5.60 2.92–8.28 2.18–9.02 | 17.62 11.99–23.24 10.43–24.81 | 92% |
| Blocked shots | 4.86 2.98–6.74 2.43–7.29 | 2.13 0.48–3.79 0.00–4.28 | 6.99 3.46–10.53 2.42–11.56 | 80% |
| Corners | 6.96 4.75–9.17 4.17–9.75 | 3.00 1.00–5.00 0.47–5.54 | 9.96 5.75–14.18 4.64–15.29 | 87% |
| Possession % | 57.11 50.32–63.91 48.65–65.57 | 42.50 35.72–49.29 34.05–50.96 | — | 79% 18% |
| Passes | 529 462–596 443–614 | 395 329–462 311–479 | 924 790–1058 755–1094 | 87% 13% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.33 71.30–79.36 70.01–80.65 | 71.41 67.08–75.73 65.77–77.04 | — | 67% 28% |
| Fouls | 12.79 9.95–15.63 9.20–16.39 | 13.55 10.60–16.49 9.85–17.24 | 26.34 20.56–32.12 19.05–33.63 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.38–3.30 | 1.12 0.03–2.22 0.00–2.51 | 2.97 0.71–5.22 0.12–5.81 | 54% 23% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.55 0.19–2.82 | 2.27 1.14–3.40 0.85–3.69 | 3.77 1.59–5.95 1.03–6.51 | 25% 20% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.00 0.56–3.44 0.18–3.82 | 3.57 2.02–5.13 1.59–5.55 | 5.57 2.58–8.56 1.77–9.38 | 19% 14% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+