Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 9·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
16%
19%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction0.982.183.16safe0.01–1.951.32–3.031.34–4.98safer0.00–2.201.10–3.260.86–5.46
Shots on target
18%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction3.625.899.51safe1.75–5.484.15–7.645.90–13.11safer1.26–5.973.68–8.104.95–14.07
Total shots
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3414.7727.11safe8.42–16.2711.20–18.3319.62–34.60safer7.33–17.3610.24–19.2917.57–36.65
Shots in box
18%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction6.9810.2817.27safe4.04–9.937.60–12.9611.64–22.89safer3.21–10.766.87–13.7010.08–24.46
Blocked shots
34%
15%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.193.776.96safe1.31–5.082.11–5.423.43–10.50safer0.77–5.621.62–5.912.39–11.53
Corners
24%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction4.115.819.92safe1.90–6.333.81–7.815.71–14.13safer1.33–6.903.27–8.344.60–15.24
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction39.7660.99safe32.97–46.5554.21–67.78safer31.30–48.2252.54–69.45
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction341536877safe273–408470–603743–1011safer255–426452–620708–1046
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction66.1280.38safe62.09–70.1576.06–84.71safer60.80–71.4474.75–86.02
Fouls
66%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7912.1226.91safe11.95–17.639.18–15.0721.13–32.69safer11.19–18.388.43–15.8219.62–34.20
Offsides
31%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.763.16safe0.24–2.560.66–2.850.91–5.41safer0.00–2.860.38–3.140.32–6.00
Yellow cards
41%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.202.154.35safe1.15–3.251.03–3.282.17–6.53safer0.88–3.510.73–3.571.62–7.09
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.100.23safe0.00–0.290.00–0.290.00–0.57safer0.00–0.440.00–0.420.00–0.86
GK saves
59%
15%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.632.586.21safe2.20–5.071.02–4.143.22–9.21safer1.81–5.460.60–4.562.41–10.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 0.01–1.95 0.00–2.20 | 2.18 1.32–3.03 1.10–3.26 | 3.16 1.34–4.98 0.86–5.46 | 16% 19% 65% |
| Shots on target | 3.62 1.75–5.48 1.26–5.97 | 5.89 4.15–7.64 3.68–8.10 | 9.51 5.90–13.11 4.95–14.07 | 18% 72% |
| Total shots | 12.34 8.42–16.27 7.33–17.36 | 14.77 11.20–18.33 10.24–19.29 | 27.11 19.62–34.60 17.57–36.65 | 29% 64% |
| Shots in box | 6.98 4.04–9.93 3.21–10.76 | 10.28 7.60–12.96 6.87–13.70 | 17.27 11.64–22.89 10.08–24.46 | 18% 75% |
| Blocked shots | 3.19 1.31–5.08 0.77–5.62 | 3.77 2.11–5.42 1.62–5.91 | 6.96 3.43–10.50 2.39–11.53 | 34% 15% 51% |
| Corners | 4.11 1.90–6.33 1.33–6.90 | 5.81 3.81–7.81 3.27–8.34 | 9.92 5.71–14.13 4.60–15.24 | 24% 65% |
| Possession % | 39.76 32.97–46.55 31.30–48.22 | 60.99 54.21–67.78 52.54–69.45 | — | 88% |
| Passes | 341 273–408 255–426 | 536 470–603 452–620 | 877 743–1011 708–1046 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.12 62.09–70.15 60.80–71.44 | 80.38 76.06–84.71 74.75–86.02 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 14.79 11.95–17.63 11.19–18.38 | 12.12 9.18–15.07 8.43–15.82 | 26.91 21.13–32.69 19.62–34.20 | 66% 27% |
| Offsides | 1.40 0.24–2.56 0.00–2.86 | 1.76 0.66–2.85 0.38–3.14 | 3.16 0.91–5.41 0.32–6.00 | 31% 23% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.20 1.15–3.25 0.88–3.51 | 2.15 1.03–3.28 0.73–3.57 | 4.35 2.17–6.53 1.62–7.09 | 41% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.63 2.20–5.07 1.81–5.46 | 2.58 1.02–4.14 0.60–4.56 | 6.21 3.22–9.21 2.41–10.02 | 59% 15% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+