Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 26·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.480.763.23safe1.51–3.440.00–1.611.41–5.06safer1.26–3.700.00–1.840.93–5.54
Shots on target
87%
homeawaytotalprediction6.642.799.44safe4.78–8.511.05–4.545.83–13.04safer4.29–9.000.59–5.004.88–14.00
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction19.548.9328.47safe15.61–23.465.37–12.4920.98–35.95safer14.52–24.554.41–13.4518.93–38.00
Shots in box
95%
homeawaytotalprediction13.205.5418.73safe10.25–16.142.86–8.2213.11–24.35safer9.42–16.972.12–8.9511.54–25.92
Blocked shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction4.892.056.93safe3.00–6.770.40–3.703.40–10.47safer2.46–7.310.00–4.192.36–11.51
Corners
89%
homeawaytotalprediction7.673.1510.82safe5.46–9.881.15–5.156.60–15.03safer4.88–10.460.61–5.685.50–16.14
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction63.3036.91safe56.51–70.0930.12–43.69safer54.84–71.7628.45–45.36
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction596345941safe529–664278–411808–1075safer511–682261–429772–1111
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction81.4269.25safe77.39–85.4564.93–73.58safer76.10–86.7463.62–74.89
Fouls
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6614.1825.85safe8.83–14.5011.24–17.1320.06–31.63safer8.07–15.2610.49–17.8818.56–33.13
Offsides
58%
21%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.163.19safe0.88–3.200.06–2.250.94–5.45safer0.58–3.500.00–2.540.35–6.04
Yellow cards
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.444.08safe0.59–2.691.31–3.561.90–6.26safer0.33–2.961.02–3.861.34–6.81
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.120.18safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81
GK saves
16%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction2.184.196.38safe0.75–3.622.64–5.753.39–9.37safer0.36–4.012.21–6.172.57–10.18
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.48 1.51–3.44 1.26–3.70 | 0.76 0.00–1.61 0.00–1.84 | 3.23 1.41–5.06 0.93–5.54 | 75% 16% |
| Shots on target | 6.64 4.78–8.51 4.29–9.00 | 2.79 1.05–4.54 0.59–5.00 | 9.44 5.83–13.04 4.88–14.00 | 87% |
| Total shots | 19.54 15.61–23.46 14.52–24.55 | 8.93 5.37–12.49 4.41–13.45 | 28.47 20.98–35.95 18.93–38.00 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 13.20 10.25–16.14 9.42–16.97 | 5.54 2.86–8.22 2.12–8.95 | 18.73 13.11–24.35 11.54–25.92 | 95% |
| Blocked shots | 4.89 3.00–6.77 2.46–7.31 | 2.05 0.40–3.70 0.00–4.19 | 6.93 3.40–10.47 2.36–11.51 | 82% |
| Corners | 7.67 5.46–9.88 4.88–10.46 | 3.15 1.15–5.15 0.61–5.68 | 10.82 6.60–15.03 5.50–16.14 | 89% |
| Possession % | 63.30 56.51–70.09 54.84–71.76 | 36.91 30.12–43.69 28.45–45.36 | — | 93% |
| Passes | 596 529–664 511–682 | 345 278–411 261–429 | 941 808–1075 772–1111 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.42 77.39–85.45 76.10–86.74 | 69.25 64.93–73.58 63.62–74.89 | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 11.66 8.83–14.50 8.07–15.26 | 14.18 11.24–17.13 10.49–17.88 | 25.85 20.06–31.63 18.56–33.13 | 28% 65% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.88–3.20 0.58–3.50 | 1.16 0.06–2.25 0.00–2.54 | 3.19 0.94–5.45 0.35–6.04 | 58% 21% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.69 0.33–2.96 | 2.44 1.31–3.56 1.02–3.86 | 4.08 1.90–6.26 1.34–6.81 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.18 0.75–3.62 0.36–4.01 | 4.19 2.64–5.75 2.21–6.17 | 6.38 3.39–9.37 2.57–10.18 | 16% 72% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+