Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 9·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 9·Predicted match statistics
Goals
67%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.970.732.71safe1.01–2.940.00–1.590.88–4.53safer0.75–3.190.00–1.820.41–5.01
Shots on target
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.272.698.96safe4.41–8.140.94–4.435.36–12.57safer3.92–8.630.48–4.894.40–13.52
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction18.478.4626.94safe14.55–22.404.90–12.0319.45–34.42safer13.46–23.493.94–12.9917.40–36.48
Shots in box
92%
homeawaytotalprediction11.265.1416.40safe8.32–14.202.46–7.8210.77–22.02safer7.49–15.031.72–8.569.21–23.59
Blocked shots
75%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction4.472.236.70safe2.59–6.350.58–3.883.17–10.24safer2.05–6.900.09–4.382.13–11.27
Corners
86%
homeawaytotalprediction6.973.1110.07safe4.75–9.181.11–5.115.86–14.29safer4.18–9.750.57–5.644.75–15.39
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction59.2740.69safe52.48–66.0633.91–47.48safer50.81–67.7332.24–49.15
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction495352847safe428–562286–419713–981safer410–580268–436678–1016
Pass accuracy %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction73.2967.01safe69.26–77.3262.69–71.34safer67.97–78.6161.38–72.65
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3812.8526.23safe10.54–16.229.91–15.8020.45–32.02safer9.79–16.979.16–16.5518.95–33.52
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.753.44safe0.54–2.860.65–2.841.19–5.70safer0.24–3.160.36–3.130.60–6.29
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.852.264.11safe0.80–2.901.13–3.391.93–6.28safer0.53–3.160.84–3.681.37–6.84
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.120.22safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.440.00–0.85
GK saves
15%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction2.074.136.19safe0.63–3.502.57–5.683.20–9.19safer0.24–3.892.15–6.112.39–10.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.97 1.01–2.94 0.75–3.19 | 0.73 0.00–1.59 0.00–1.82 | 2.71 0.88–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 67% 20% |
| Shots on target | 6.27 4.41–8.14 3.92–8.63 | 2.69 0.94–4.43 0.48–4.89 | 8.96 5.36–12.57 4.40–13.52 | 85% |
| Total shots | 18.47 14.55–22.40 13.46–23.49 | 8.46 4.90–12.03 3.94–12.99 | 26.94 19.45–34.42 17.40–36.48 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 11.26 8.32–14.20 7.49–15.03 | 5.14 2.46–7.82 1.72–8.56 | 16.40 10.77–22.02 9.21–23.59 | 92% |
| Blocked shots | 4.47 2.59–6.35 2.05–6.90 | 2.23 0.58–3.88 0.09–4.38 | 6.70 3.17–10.24 2.13–11.27 | 75% 14% |
| Corners | 6.97 4.75–9.18 4.18–9.75 | 3.11 1.11–5.11 0.57–5.64 | 10.07 5.86–14.29 4.75–15.39 | 86% |
| Possession % | 59.27 52.48–66.06 50.81–67.73 | 40.69 33.91–47.48 32.24–49.15 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 495 428–562 410–580 | 352 286–419 268–436 | 847 713–981 678–1016 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.29 69.26–77.32 67.97–78.61 | 67.01 62.69–71.34 61.38–72.65 | — | 77% 19% |
| Fouls | 13.38 10.54–16.22 9.79–16.97 | 12.85 9.91–15.80 9.16–16.55 | 26.23 20.45–32.02 18.95–33.52 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.54–2.86 0.24–3.16 | 1.75 0.65–2.84 0.36–3.13 | 3.44 1.19–5.70 0.60–6.29 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.80–2.90 0.53–3.16 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 4.11 1.93–6.28 1.37–6.84 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.07 0.63–3.50 0.24–3.89 | 4.13 2.57–5.68 2.15–6.11 | 6.19 3.20–9.19 2.39–10.00 | 15% 73% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.